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Maize in Guidan Roumdji

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

131–208

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

124–218

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 131 and 208 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Guidan Roumdji: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 131 and 208 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 163–202 180 147–221 293 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 140–205 165 133–218 274 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 131–208 159 112–239 263 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 128–212 156 115–263 255 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 124–218 160 103–307 259 –
Price history (201 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026191
Aug 2026191
Jul 2026196
Jun 2026199
May 2026186
Apr 2026179
Mar 2026170
Feb 2026170
Jan 2026143
Dec 2025170
Nov 2025179
Oct 2025178
Sept 2025240
Aug 2025248
Jul 2025265
Jun 2025265
May 2025277
Apr 2025274
Mar 2025288
Feb 2025288
Jan 2025291
Dec 2024298
Nov 2024306
Oct 2024306
Sept 2024323
Aug 2024403
Jul 2024410
Jun 2024401
May 2024374
Apr 2024367
Mar 2024318
Feb 2024298
Jan 2024278
Dec 2023276
Nov 2023335
Oct 2023341
Sept 2023385
Aug 2023340
Jul 2023335
Jun 2023280
May 2023260
Apr 2023260
Mar 2023260
Feb 2023260
Jan 2023271
Dec 2022271
Nov 2022242
Oct 2022341
Sept 2022270
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022300
Jun 2022310
May 2022280
Apr 2022290
Mar 2022293
Jan 2022283
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021239
Oct 2021272
Sept 2021305
Aug 2021340
Jul 2021318
Jun 2021341
May 2021341
Apr 2021278
Mar 2021260
Feb 2021267
Jan 2021263
Dec 2020257
Nov 2020220
Oct 2020212
Sept 2020231
Aug 2020240
Jul 2020223
Jun 2020220
May 2020214
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020208
Feb 2020186
Jan 2020208
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019208
Oct 2019201
Sept 2019206
Aug 2019180
Jul 2019183
Jun 2019194
May 2019200
Apr 2019185
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019180
Jan 2019180
Dec 2018180
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018212
Jul 2018212
May 2018220
Apr 2018215
Mar 2018197
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017192
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017231
Aug 2017244
Jul 2017237
Jun 2017250
May 2017260
Apr 2017260
Mar 2017229
Feb 2017220
Jan 2017220
Nov 2016227
Oct 2016227
Sept 2016245
Aug 2016244
Jul 2016218
Jun 2016204
May 2016179
Apr 2016179
Mar 2016185
Feb 2016167
Jan 2016180
Dec 2015196
Oct 2015183
Sept 2015211
Aug 2015170
Jul 2015169
Jun 2015185
May 2015195
Apr 2015190
Mar 2015171
Feb 2015178
Jan 2015188
Nov 2014181
Oct 2014193
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014213
Jul 2014220
Jun 2014220
May 2014204
Apr 2014207
Mar 2014220
Feb 2014220
Jan 2014220
Dec 2013220
Nov 2013216
Oct 2013235
Sept 2013255
Aug 2013265
Jul 2013254
Jun 2013250
May 2013244
Apr 2013250
Mar 2013248
Jan 2013263
Dec 2012245
Nov 2012265
Oct 2012207
Sept 2012248
Aug 2012268
Jul 2012270
May 2012233
Apr 2012235
Dec 2011213
Nov 2011200
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011217
Jul 2011220
Jun 2011208
May 2011242
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011186
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010194
Nov 2010180
Oct 2010190
Sept 2010211
Aug 2010210
Jul 2010217
Jun 2010214
May 2010216
Apr 2010217
Mar 2010208
Feb 2010213
Jan 2010220
Dec 2009211
Nov 2009228
Oct 2009197
Sept 2009220
Aug 2009227
Jul 2009225
Jun 2009212
May 2009213
Apr 2009256
Mar 2009238
Feb 2009218
Jan 2009219

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-581-51-retail-kg.