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Sorghum in Guidan Roumdji

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 37% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 27% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 13% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

105–187

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

109–194

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 105 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 109 and 194 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Guidan Roumdji: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 105 and 187 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 109 and 194 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 140–200 167 132–226 275 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 118–194 148 101–205 227 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 105–187 136 98.6–203 206 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 99.5–187 129 95.2–243 181 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 109–194 140 107–240 212 –
Price history (192 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026197
Aug 2026173
Jul 2026192
Jun 2026209
May 2026201
Apr 2026177
Mar 2026170
Feb 2026149
Jan 2026136
Dec 2025150
Nov 2025161
Oct 2025164
Sept 2025204
Aug 2025221
Jul 2025250
Jun 2025255
May 2025267
Apr 2025254
Mar 2025263
Feb 2025273
Jan 2025275
Dec 2024229
Nov 2024225
Oct 2024230
Sept 2024285
Aug 2024435
Jul 2024432
Jun 2024326
May 2024307
Apr 2024283
Mar 2024273
Feb 2024260
Jan 2024251
Dec 2023204
Nov 2023230
Sept 2023336
Aug 2023308
Jul 2023265
Jun 2023232
May 2023222
Apr 2023185
Mar 2023222
Feb 2023204
Jan 2023173
Dec 2022167
Nov 2022202
Oct 2022329
Sept 2022269
Aug 2022288
Jul 2022288
Jun 2022294
May 2022280
Apr 2022267
Mar 2022253
Jan 2022229
Dec 2021190
Sept 2021260
Aug 2021313
Jul 2021323
Jun 2021286
May 2021286
Apr 2021263
Mar 2021230
Feb 2021200
Jan 2021208
Dec 2020119
Nov 2020192
Sept 2020313
Aug 2020269
Jul 2020263
Jun 2020230
May 2020196
Apr 2020179
Mar 2020163
Feb 2020170
Jan 2020154
Dec 2019130
Nov 2019153
Oct 2019148
Sept 2019146
Aug 2019147
Jul 2019154
Jun 2019147
May 2019166
Apr 2019174
Mar 2019174
Feb 2019150
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018130
Nov 2018167
Oct 2018220
Sept 2018220
Aug 2018204
Jul 2018204
May 2018204
Apr 2018229
Mar 2018203
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018200
Dec 2017167
Nov 2017185
Oct 2017167
Sept 2017222
Aug 2017253
Jul 2017259
Jun 2017259
May 2017241
Apr 2017255
Mar 2017202
Feb 2017167
Jan 2017150
Nov 2016140
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016224
Jul 2016213
Jun 2016163
May 2016154
Apr 2016154
Mar 2016125
Feb 2016135
Jan 2016120
Dec 2015125
Oct 2015146
Sept 2015140
Aug 2015113
Jul 2015140
Jun 2015155
May 2015152
Apr 2015139
Mar 2015135
Feb 2015115
Jan 2015120
Nov 2014120
Sept 2014180
Aug 2014193
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014210
May 2014200
Apr 2014212
Mar 2014190
Feb 2014174
Jan 2014164
Dec 2013177
Nov 2013183
Oct 2013238
Sept 2013240
Aug 2013270
Jul 2013273
Jun 2013260
May 2013240
Apr 2013240
Mar 2013236
Jan 2013214
Dec 2012173
Nov 2012192
Oct 2012165
Sept 2012160
Aug 2012310
Jul 2012294
May 2012234
Apr 2012221
Dec 2011164
Nov 2011163
Sept 2011139
Jul 2011129
Jun 2011143
May 2011161
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011150
Jan 2011143
Dec 2010140
Nov 2010213
Sept 2010100Data error
Aug 2010220
Jul 2010267
Jun 2010224
May 2010199
Apr 2010174
Mar 2010166
Feb 2010180
Jan 2010170
Dec 2009143
Nov 2009137
Sept 2009162
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009204
Jun 2009167
May 2009157
Apr 2009164
Mar 2009166
Feb 2009147
Jan 2009140

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-581-65-retail-kg.