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Millet in Guidan Roumdji

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 30% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 13% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

128–207

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

123–219

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 123 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Guidan Roumdji: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 123 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 145–199 166 128–211 242 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 131–198 156 119–217 224 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 128–207 157 117–208 224 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 128–215 159 109–237 235 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 123–219 161 101–243 242 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026181
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026223
Jun 2026224
May 2026218
Apr 2026204
Mar 2026198
Feb 2026173
Jan 2026155
Dec 2025162
Nov 2025179
Oct 2025172
Sept 2025182
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025274
Jun 2025280
May 2025278
Apr 2025278
Mar 2025283
Feb 2025285
Jan 2025296
Dec 2024279
Nov 2024252
Oct 2024242
Sept 2024250
Aug 2024438
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024346
May 2024319
Apr 2024300
Mar 2024278
Feb 2024259
Jan 2024235
Dec 2023231
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023231
Sept 2023284
Aug 2023290
Jul 2023278
Jun 2023250
May 2023250
Apr 2023237
Mar 2023231
Feb 2023231
Jan 2023222
Dec 2022222
Nov 2022217
Oct 2022322
Sept 2022263
Aug 2022311
Jul 2022315
Jun 2022296
May 2022278
Apr 2022259
Mar 2022259
Jan 2022255
Dec 2021236
Nov 2021230
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021266
Aug 2021301
Jul 2021282
Jun 2021274
May 2021280
Apr 2021270
Mar 2021241
Feb 2021247
Jan 2021242
Dec 2020217
Nov 2020166
Oct 2020183
Sept 2020220
Aug 2020274
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020236
May 2020201
Apr 2020214
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019164
Nov 2019158
Oct 2019137
Sept 2019141
Aug 2019149
Jul 2019167
Jun 2019166
May 2019170
Apr 2019194
Mar 2019185
Feb 2019161
Jan 2019170
Dec 2018161
Nov 2018167
Oct 2018144
Sept 2018192
Aug 2018214
Jul 2018250
May 2018224
Apr 2018231
Mar 2018210
Feb 2018204
Jan 2018204
Dec 2017220
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017196
Sept 2017152
Aug 2017276
Jul 2017288
Jun 2017268
May 2017250
Apr 2017259
Mar 2017222
Feb 2017190
Jan 2017164
Nov 2016160
Oct 2016154
Sept 2016200
Aug 2016206
Jul 2016190
Jun 2016158
May 2016167
Mar 2016148
Feb 2016148
Jan 2016144
Dec 2015144
Oct 2015133
Sept 2015155
Aug 2015137
Jul 2015162
Jun 2015148
May 2015159
Apr 2015149
Mar 2015125
Feb 2015129
Jan 2015141
Nov 2014143
Oct 2014140
Sept 2014163
Aug 2014185
Jul 2014206
Jun 2014201
May 2014210
Apr 2014223
Mar 2014208
Feb 2014204
Jan 2014209
Dec 2013220
Nov 2013216
Oct 2013205
Sept 2013208
Aug 2013286
Jul 2013296
Jun 2013278
May 2013258
Apr 2013259
Mar 2013253
Jan 2013227
Dec 2012273
Nov 2012250
Oct 2012174
Sept 2012174
Aug 2012273
Jul 2012283
May 2012273
Apr 2012250
Dec 2011250
Nov 2011176
Oct 2011148
Sept 2011137
Jul 2011152
Jun 2011155
May 2011173
Apr 2011154
Mar 2011154
Jan 2011136
Dec 2010143
Nov 2010130
Oct 2010120
Sept 2010134
Aug 2010237
Jul 2010240
Jun 2010222
May 2010200
Apr 2010183
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010175
Jan 2010174
Dec 2009161
Nov 2009151
Oct 2009154
Sept 2009138
Aug 2009175
Jul 2009220
Jun 2009175
May 2009155
Apr 2009161
Mar 2009160
Feb 2009161
Jan 2009157

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-581-73-retail-kg.