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Maize in Harobanda

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

143–205

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

137–223

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 143 and 205 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Harobanda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 143 and 205 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 137 and 223 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 174–202 185 160–216 301 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 155–205 175 136–211 279 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 143–205 167 120–232 261 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 140–211 168 112–242 266 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 137–223 172 114–296 290 –
Price history (181 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026194
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026190
Jun 2026186
May 2026179
Apr 2026189
Mar 2026194
Feb 2026191
Dec 2025194
Nov 2025193
Oct 2025196
Sept 2025227
Aug 2025251
Jul 2025271
Jun 2025286
May 2025292
Apr 2025292
Mar 2025293
Dec 2024287
Nov 2024259
Oct 2024287
Sept 2024379
Aug 2024402
Jul 2024433
Jun 2024412
May 2024370
Apr 2024345
Mar 2024339
Jan 2024284
Dec 2023279
Nov 2023289
Oct 2023323
Sept 2023372
Aug 2023361
Jul 2023308
Jun 2023250
May 2023229
Apr 2023227
Mar 2023224
Feb 2023248
Jan 2023248
Dec 2022247
Oct 2022260
Sept 2022271
Aug 2022291
Jul 2022291
Jun 2022288
May 2022286
Apr 2022286
Feb 2022283
Jan 2022256
Dec 2021245
Nov 2021231
Oct 2021257
Sept 2021303
Aug 2021316
Jul 2021281
Jun 2021247
May 2021247
Apr 2021229
Dec 2020216
Nov 2020187
Oct 2020210
Sept 2020209
Aug 2020209
Jul 2020201
Jun 2020188
May 2020197
Apr 2020189
Mar 2020189
Dec 2019194
Nov 2019194
Oct 2019190
Sept 2019190
Aug 2019189
Jul 2019187
Jun 2019195
May 2019190
Apr 2019183
Dec 2018191
Nov 2018203
Oct 2018194
Sept 2018190
Aug 2018190
Jul 2018209
Jun 2018212
May 2018205
Apr 2018196
Mar 2018192
Feb 2018196
Jan 2018196
Dec 2017196
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017228
Sept 2017228
Aug 2017216
Jul 2017222
Jun 2017222
May 2017228
Apr 2017213
Mar 2017187
Feb 2017190
Nov 2016212
Oct 2016213
Sept 2016214
Aug 2016213
Jul 2016212
Jun 2016213
May 2016213
Apr 2016214
Mar 2016192
Dec 2015192
Oct 2015209
Sept 2015210
Aug 2015217
Jul 2015202
Jun 2015190
May 2015190
Apr 2015172
Mar 2015196
Feb 2015196
Jan 2015196
Nov 2014194
Oct 2014193
Sept 2014192
Aug 2014195
Jul 2014194
Jun 2014192
May 2014194
Apr 2014195
Mar 2014196
Feb 2014197
Jan 2014198
Dec 2013198
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013203
Sept 2013217
Aug 2013214
Jul 2013225
Jun 2013223
May 2013237
Apr 2013235
Jan 2013195
Dec 2012199
Nov 2012199
Oct 2012213
Sept 2012269
Aug 2012263
Jul 2012238
May 2012217
Apr 2012218
Dec 2011217
Nov 2011217
Oct 2011232
Sept 2011223
Jul 2011208
Jun 2011202
May 2011198
Apr 2011187
Mar 2011176
Feb 2011192
Dec 2010180
Nov 2010181
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010198
Aug 2010202
Jul 2010204
Jun 2010202
May 2010198
Apr 2010188
Feb 2010200
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009206
Oct 2009214
Sept 2009242
Aug 2009237
Jul 2009240
Jun 2009247
May 2009261
Apr 2009258
Mar 2009257

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-584-51-retail-kg.