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Sorghum in Harobanda

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 28% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 51 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

182–260

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

178–273

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 182 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 178 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Harobanda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 28% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 182 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 178 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 214–260 232 204–272 346 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 194–262 222 192–283 319 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 182–260 213 148–287 299 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 174–264 206 145–337 284 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 178–273 213 160–378 295 –
Price history (204 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026241
Aug 2026237
Jul 2026237
Jun 2026243
May 2026235
Apr 2026236
Mar 2026237
Feb 2026217
Jan 2026237
Dec 2025231
Nov 2025232
Oct 2025235
Sept 2025252
Aug 2025281
Jul 2025299
Jun 2025300
May 2025310
Apr 2025312
Mar 2025313
Feb 2025313
Jan 2025308
Dec 2024315
Nov 2024330
Oct 2024422
Sept 2024491
Aug 2024454
Jul 2024444
Jun 2024387
May 2024372
Apr 2024339
Mar 2024320
Feb 2024309
Jan 2024300
Dec 2023300
Nov 2023340
Oct 2023363
Sept 2023391
Aug 2023389
Jul 2023315
Jun 2023300
May 2023297
Apr 2023293
Mar 2023288
Feb 2023283
Jan 2023269
Dec 2022280
Nov 2022213
Oct 2022241
Sept 2022307
Aug 2022314
Jul 2022315
Jun 2022298
May 2022291
Apr 2022293
Mar 2022294
Feb 2022280
Jan 2022270
Dec 2021272
Nov 2021292
Oct 2021294
Sept 2021294
Aug 2021286
Jul 2021284
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Mar 2021258
Feb 2021237
Jan 2021234
Dec 2020154
Nov 2020240
Oct 2020258
Sept 2020278
Aug 2020278
Jul 2020252
Jun 2020241
May 2020238
Apr 2020238
Mar 2020238
Feb 2020238
Jan 2020206
Dec 2019208
Nov 2019199
Oct 2019198
Sept 2019226
Aug 2019221
Jul 2019235
Jun 2019223
May 2019238
Apr 2019237
Mar 2019237
Feb 2019235
Jan 2019240
Dec 2018240
Nov 2018237
Oct 2018237
Sept 2018253
Aug 2018253
Jul 2018248
Jun 2018258
May 2018257
Apr 2018257
Mar 2018238
Feb 2018228
Jan 2018228
Dec 2017247
Nov 2017264
Oct 2017294
Sept 2017294
Aug 2017241
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017225
May 2017255
Apr 2017226
Mar 2017226
Feb 2017224
Jan 2017231
Nov 2016231
Oct 2016231
Sept 2016235
Aug 2016233
Jul 2016229
Jun 2016229
May 2016209
Apr 2016213
Mar 2016216
Feb 2016216
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015237
Oct 2015238
Sept 2015222
Aug 2015230
Jul 2015218
Jun 2015211
May 2015213
Apr 2015216
Mar 2015222
Feb 2015222
Jan 2015220
Nov 2014242
Oct 2014241
Sept 2014240
Aug 2014235
Jul 2014235
Jun 2014233
May 2014242
Apr 2014245
Mar 2014240
Feb 2014238
Jan 2014233
Dec 2013235
Nov 2013242
Oct 2013237
Sept 2013231
Aug 2013236
Jul 2013249
Jun 2013242
May 2013241
Apr 2013240
Mar 2013242
Jan 2013237
Dec 2012243
Nov 2012244
Oct 2012262
Sept 2012302
Aug 2012284
Jul 2012255
May 2012250
Apr 2012246
Dec 2011222
Nov 2011217
Oct 2011213
Sept 2011204
Jul 2011207
Jun 2011206
May 2011204
Apr 2011180
Mar 2011200
Feb 2011204
Jan 2011204
Dec 2010203
Nov 2010202
Oct 2010202
Sept 2010206
Aug 2010220
Jul 2010228
Jun 2010217
May 2010205
Apr 2010202
Mar 2010203
Feb 2010199
Jan 2010213
Dec 2009207
Nov 2009218
Oct 2009224
Sept 2009245
Aug 2009240
Jul 2009224
Jun 2009234
May 2009234
Apr 2009236
Mar 2009235
Feb 2009222
Jan 2009219

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-584-65-retail-kg.