Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Millet in Harobanda

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 7% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

198–296

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

195–306

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 198 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 306 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Harobanda: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 16% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 198 and 296 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 306 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 243–299 270 217–307 345 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 206–288 239 171–296 287 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 198–296 236 166–296 290 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 193–301 235 166–351 289 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 195–306 237 170–357 296 –
Price history (359 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026276
Aug 2026290
Jul 2026285
Jun 2026274
May 2026250
Apr 2026256
Mar 2026240
Feb 2026233
Jan 2026233
Dec 2025236
Nov 2025233
Oct 2025240
Sept 2025276
Aug 2025291
Jul 2025316
Jun 2025314
May 2025308
Apr 2025330
Mar 2025337
Feb 2025333
Jan 2025313
Dec 2024340
Nov 2024323
Oct 2024335
Sept 2024396
Aug 2024486
May 2024381
Apr 2024340
Mar 2024342
Feb 2024312
Jan 2024306
Dec 2023301
Nov 2023306
Oct 2023320
Sept 2023378
Aug 2023360
Jul 2023343
May 2023291
Apr 2023259
Mar 2023286
Feb 2023291
Jan 2023293
Dec 2022294
Nov 2022235
Oct 2022189
Sept 2022343
Aug 2022366
Jul 2022357
May 2022336
Apr 2022332
Mar 2022312
Feb 2022304
Jan 2022302
Dec 2021294
Nov 2021300
Oct 2021285
Sept 2021302
Aug 2021290
Jul 2021294
May 2021292
Apr 2021273
Mar 2021271
Feb 2021265
Jan 2021244
Dec 2020178
Nov 2020229
Oct 2020246
Sept 2020292
Aug 2020311
Jul 2020266
May 2020249
Apr 2020245
Mar 2020230
Feb 2020229
Jan 2020214
Dec 2019215
Nov 2019221
Oct 2019212
Sept 2019230
Aug 2019217
Jun 2019233
May 2019231
Apr 2019228
Mar 2019228
Feb 2019229
Jan 2019234
Dec 2018234
Nov 2018231
Oct 2018231
Sept 2018275
Aug 2018277
Jul 2018294
Jun 2018291
May 2018266
Apr 2018257
Mar 2018255
Feb 2018253
Jan 2018253
Dec 2017253
Nov 2017275
Oct 2017271
Sept 2017315
Aug 2017285
Jul 2017280
May 2017292
Apr 2017270
Mar 2017231
Feb 2017235
Jan 2017222
Nov 2016217
Oct 2016226
Sept 2016257
Aug 2016250
Jul 2016235
Jun 2016231
May 2016217
Apr 2016216
Mar 2016213
Feb 2016213
Jan 2016210
Dec 2015210
Oct 2015211
Sept 2015222
Aug 2015229
Jul 2015228
Jun 2015226
May 2015231
Apr 2015225
Mar 2015216
Feb 2015216
Jan 2015218
Nov 2014237
Oct 2014238
Sept 2014238
Aug 2014253
Jul 2014250
Jun 2014255
May 2014259
Apr 2014260
Mar 2014278
Feb 2014277
Jan 2014267
Dec 2013260
Nov 2013270
Oct 2013262
Sept 2013275
Aug 2013276
Jul 2013294
May 2013283
Apr 2013282
Mar 2013262
Feb 2013257
Jan 2013258
Dec 2012262
Nov 2012252
Oct 2012255
Sept 2012323
Aug 2012321
May 2012300
Apr 2012275
Mar 2012260
Feb 2012259
Jan 2012260
Dec 2011257
Nov 2011222
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011202
Jun 2011220
May 2011220
Apr 2011205
Mar 2011202
Feb 2011198
Jan 2011198
Dec 2010194
Nov 2010180
Oct 2010200
Sept 2010225
Aug 2010242
Jul 2010243
Jun 2010242
May 2010238
Apr 2010222
Mar 2010220
Feb 2010216
Jan 2010218
Dec 2009219
Nov 2009220
Oct 2009206
Sept 2009238
Aug 2009260
May 2009236
Apr 2009232
Mar 2009234
Feb 2009218
Jan 2009222
Dec 2008213
Nov 2008205
Oct 2008198
Sept 2008215
Aug 2008232
Jul 2008235
May 2008207
Apr 2008201
Mar 2008178
Feb 2008179
Dec 2007160
Nov 2007159
Oct 2007158
Sept 2007161
Aug 2007162
Jul 2007161
Jun 2007160
May 2007163
Apr 2007158
Mar 2007159
Feb 2007163
Jan 2007158
Dec 2006158
Nov 2006146
Oct 2006165
Sept 2006170
Aug 2006179
Jun 2006184
May 2006189
Apr 2006196
Mar 2006181
Feb 2006181
Jan 2006179
Dec 2005176
Nov 2005176
Oct 2005196
Sept 2005235
Aug 2005299
Jun 2005257
May 2005221
Apr 2005197
Mar 2005200
Feb 2005178
Jan 2005158
Dec 2004151
Nov 2004164
Oct 2004166
Sept 2004138
Aug 2004142
Jun 2004134
May 2004136
Apr 2004132
Mar 2004126
Feb 2004119
Jan 2004121
Dec 2003122
Nov 2003123
Oct 2003120
Sept 2003136
Aug 2003147
Jun 2003188
May 2003188
Apr 2003185
Mar 2003183
Feb 2003200
Jan 2003171
Dec 2002164
Nov 2002176
Oct 2002163
Sept 2002204
Aug 2002236
Jun 2002203
May 2002203
Apr 2002203
Mar 2002203
Feb 2002192
Jan 2002148
Dec 2001143
Nov 2001143
Oct 2001148
Sept 2001171
Aug 2001211
Jun 2001206
May 2001214
Apr 2001236
Mar 2001192
Feb 2001149
Jan 2001150
Dec 2000133
Nov 2000128
Oct 2000128
Sept 2000128
Jun 2000128
Apr 2000117
Mar 2000112
Feb 2000106
Jan 200098
Dec 199998
Nov 199997
Oct 1999106
Sept 1999112
Jul 1999119
Jun 1999117
May 1999117
Apr 1999117
Mar 1999116
Feb 1999118
Jan 1999115
Dec 1998117
Nov 1998120
Oct 1998127
Sept 1998187
Aug 1998242
Jul 1998216
Jun 1998224
May 1998225
Apr 1998193
Mar 1998181
Feb 1998168
Jan 1998168
Dec 1997168
Nov 1997168
Oct 1997167
Sept 1997179
Jul 1997193
Jun 1997170
May 1997167
Apr 1997170
Mar 1997147
Feb 1997139
Jan 1997127
Dec 1996114
Nov 1996112
Oct 1996126
Sept 1996144
Aug 1996164
Jun 1996135
May 1996136
Apr 1996120
Mar 1996104
Feb 1996100
Jan 199693
Dec 199593
Nov 199590
Oct 199580
Sept 199582
Jun 199586
May 199583
Apr 199586
Mar 199585
Feb 199583
Jan 199587
Dec 199486
Nov 199486
Oct 199492
Sept 199497
Aug 1994102
Jul 1994106
Jun 199495
May 199489
Apr 199482
Mar 199486
Feb 199487
Jan 199483

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-584-73-retail-kg.