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Maize in Ingall

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Far above the national price. In August 2026 the price here was 61% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 30% above). That is far above its usual distance: prices that separate from the rest of the country can point to a cut-off area, but also to a data error. How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

229–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

215–350

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 229 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 215 and 350 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Ingall: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 229 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 215 and 350 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 274–332 305 244–346 378 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 243–328 278 205–337 348 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 229–342 276 209–379 354 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 222–348 275 192–411 352 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 215–350 279 173–438 357 –
Price history (176 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026315
Aug 2026321
Jul 2026312
Jun 2026310
May 2026300
Apr 2026300
Mar 2026272
Feb 2026260
Jan 2026260
Dec 2025260
Nov 2025260
Oct 2025258
Sept 2025293
Aug 2025328
Jul 2025360
Jun 2025360
May 2025360
Apr 2025360
Mar 2025360
Feb 2025374
Jan 2025372
Dec 2024360
Nov 2024376
Oct 2024398
Sept 2024433
Aug 2024437
Jul 2024439
Jun 2024440
May 2024425
Apr 2024413
Mar 2024450
Feb 2024437
Jan 2024431
Dec 2023400
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023400
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023359
Jun 2023317
May 2023317
Apr 2023317
Mar 2023317
Feb 2023300
Jan 2023300
Dec 2022320
Nov 2022295
Oct 2022267
Sept 2022340
Aug 2022340
Jul 2022340
Jun 2022340
Apr 2022340
Mar 2022340
Feb 2022340
Jan 2022340
Dec 2021320
Nov 2021300
Oct 2021300
Sept 2021290
Aug 2021280
Jul 2021280
Jun 2021280
May 2021280
Apr 2021280
Mar 2021280
Feb 2021280
Jan 2021280
Nov 2020280
Oct 2020296
Sept 2020300
Aug 2020264
Jul 2020240
Jun 2020240
May 2020240
Apr 2020240
Mar 2020245
Feb 2020232
Jan 2020200
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019200
Oct 2019198
Sept 2019213
Aug 2019242
Jul 2019240
Jun 2019240
May 2019240
Apr 2019280
Mar 2019280
Feb 2019240
Jan 2019240
Dec 2018240
Nov 2018275
Oct 2018216
Sept 2018278
Aug 2018279
Jul 2018280
Jun 2018280
May 2018278
Apr 2018277
Mar 2018280
Feb 2018280
Jan 2018278
Dec 2017276
Nov 2017277
Oct 2017257
Sept 2017277
Aug 2017312
Jul 2017314
Jun 2017283
Apr 2017242
Mar 2017242
Feb 2017242
Jan 2017242
Nov 2016240
Oct 2016280
Sept 2016277
Aug 2016278
Jul 2016240
Jun 2016200
May 2016200
Mar 2016235
Feb 2016235
Jan 2016250
Dec 2015286
Oct 2015283
Sept 2015283
Aug 2015295
Jul 2015294
Jun 2015251
May 2015210
Apr 2015232
Mar 2015274
Feb 2015274
Jan 2015274
Nov 2014295
Oct 2014295
Sept 2014295
Aug 2014308
Jul 2014309
Jun 2014311
May 2014314
Apr 2014314
Mar 2014280
Feb 2014292
Jan 2014315
Dec 2013315
Nov 2013321
Oct 2013313
Sept 2013339
Aug 2013339
Jul 2013338
Jun 2013327
May 2013319
Apr 2013336
Mar 2013320
Jan 2013314
Dec 2012314
Nov 2012293
Oct 2012261
Sept 2012304
Aug 2012290
Jul 2012279
May 2012255
Apr 2012255
Dec 2011252
Nov 2011240
Oct 2011231
Sept 2011231
Jul 2011231
May 2011240
Apr 2011249
Mar 2011235
Feb 2011235
Jan 2011235
Nov 2010195

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-585-51-retail-kg.