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Sorghum in Ingall

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 7% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 9% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

180–274

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

182–288

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 274 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 182 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Ingall: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 274 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 182 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 224–276 245 212–295 356 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 200–272 223 168–289 305 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 180–274 214 147–310 290 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 177–280 212 151–388 284 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 182–288 220 166–415 300 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026240
Aug 2026253
Jul 2026258
Jun 2026243
May 2026238
Apr 2026238
Mar 2026217
Feb 2026217
Jan 2026229
Dec 2025237
Nov 2025237
Oct 2025252
Sept 2025267
Aug 2025296
Jul 2025326
Jun 2025316
May 2025312
Apr 2025317
Mar 2025331
Feb 2025337
Jan 2025325
Dec 2024311
Nov 2024313
Oct 2024342
Sept 2024477
Aug 2024478
Jul 2024389
Jun 2024357
May 2024346
Apr 2024326
Mar 2024320
Feb 2024318
Jan 2024298
Dec 2023303
Nov 2023293
Oct 2023317
Sept 2023337
Aug 2023314
Jul 2023289
Jun 2023280
May 2023277
Apr 2023277
Mar 2023278
Feb 2023278
Jan 2023298
Dec 2022295
Nov 2022295
Oct 2022280
Sept 2022316
Aug 2022336
Jul 2022317
Jun 2022317
Apr 2022317
Mar 2022317
Feb 2022317
Jan 2022296
Dec 2021301
Nov 2021317
Oct 2021317
Sept 2021297
Aug 2021298
Jul 2021275
Jun 2021298
May 2021298
Apr 2021291
Mar 2021278
Feb 2021278
Jan 2021270
Dec 2020188
Nov 2020238
Oct 2020254
Sept 2020312
Aug 2020302
Jul 2020238
Jun 2020238
May 2020238
Apr 2020238
Mar 2020252
Feb 2020235
Jan 2020211
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019198
Oct 2019202
Sept 2019202
Jul 2019204
Jun 2019205
May 2019207
Apr 2019220
Mar 2019193
Feb 2019193
Jan 2019196
Dec 2018193
Nov 2018189
Oct 2018196
Sept 2018247
Aug 2018243
Jul 2018238
Jun 2018258
May 2018240
Apr 2018240
Mar 2018238
Feb 2018238
Jan 2018240
Dec 2017244
Nov 2017258
Oct 2017258
Sept 2017337
Aug 2017316
Jul 2017317
Jun 2017305
Apr 2017238
Mar 2017237
Feb 2017240
Jan 2017240
Nov 2016198
Oct 2016238
Sept 2016338
Aug 2016305
Jul 2016198
Jun 2016198
May 2016198
Apr 2016196
Mar 2016194
Feb 2016194
Jan 2016199
Dec 2015204
Oct 2015203
Sept 2015202
Aug 2015211
Jul 2015211
Jun 2015212
May 2015213
Apr 2015216
Mar 2015219
Feb 2015219
Jan 2015263
Nov 2014263
Oct 2014307
Sept 2014307
Aug 2014304
Jul 2014304
Jun 2014302
May 2014307
Apr 2014307
Mar 2014278
Feb 2014290
Jan 2014315
Dec 2013315
Nov 2013315
Oct 2013314
Sept 2013311
Aug 2013311
Jul 2013310
Jun 2013308
May 2013308
Apr 2013307
Mar 2013306
Jan 2013282
Dec 2012282
Nov 2012272
Oct 2012272
Sept 2012286
Aug 2012278
Jul 2012261
May 2012245
Apr 2012222
Dec 2011203
Nov 2011207
Oct 2011202
Sept 2011202
Jul 2011196
Jun 2011204
May 2011208
Apr 2011208
Mar 2011208
Feb 2011203
Jan 2011203
Aug 2010236
Jul 2010231
Jun 2010226
May 2010231
Apr 2010239
Jan 2010217
Dec 2009221
Nov 2009215
Oct 2009215
Sept 2009204
Aug 2009204
Jul 2009215
Jun 2009223
May 2009210
Apr 2009202
Mar 2009206
Feb 2009184
Jan 2009198

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-585-65-retail-kg.