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Millet in Ingall

Agadez, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 14% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 11% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

220–312

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

221–326

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 312 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 221 and 326 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Ingall: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 220 and 312 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 221 and 326 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 269–321 293 252–334 371 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 233–308 261 201–317 316 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 220–312 255 189–313 310 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 212–318 251 177–352 306 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 221–326 259 200–391 315 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026283
Aug 2026310
Jul 2026304
Jun 2026276
May 2026260
Apr 2026255
Mar 2026236
Feb 2026236
Jan 2026235
Dec 2025253
Nov 2025246
Oct 2025243
Sept 2025268
Aug 2025306
Jul 2025352
Jun 2025352
May 2025352
Apr 2025351
Mar 2025345
Feb 2025343
Jan 2025332
Dec 2024314
Nov 2024325
Oct 2024400
Sept 2024527
Aug 2024480
Jul 2024431
Jun 2024395
May 2024384
Apr 2024366
Mar 2024336
Feb 2024336
Jan 2024316
Dec 2023314
Nov 2023308
Oct 2023316
Sept 2023385
Aug 2023354
Jul 2023325
Jun 2023314
May 2023313
Apr 2023313
Mar 2023294
Feb 2023316
Jan 2023316
Dec 2022313
Nov 2022311
Oct 2022307
Sept 2022350
Aug 2022389
Jun 2022352
Apr 2022352
Mar 2022352
Feb 2022352
Jan 2022313
Dec 2021313
Nov 2021316
Oct 2021316
Sept 2021346
Aug 2021336
Jul 2021315
Jun 2021311
May 2021313
Apr 2021307
Mar 2021292
Feb 2021292
Jan 2021280
Dec 2020219
Nov 2020253
Oct 2020259
Sept 2020330
Aug 2020297
Jul 2020272
Jun 2020273
May 2020261
Apr 2020255
Mar 2020255
Feb 2020243
Jan 2020232
Dec 2019233
Nov 2019224
Oct 2019213
Sept 2019227
Aug 2019234
Jul 2019235
Jun 2019234
May 2019233
Apr 2019233
Mar 2019233
Feb 2019229
Jan 2019229
Dec 2018228
Nov 2018229
Oct 2018229
Sept 2018260
Aug 2018291
Jul 2018294
Jun 2018272
May 2018275
Apr 2018275
Mar 2018272
Feb 2018272
Jan 2018277
Dec 2017277
Nov 2017277
Oct 2017255
Sept 2017353
Aug 2017336
Jul 2017336
Jun 2017343
Apr 2017275
Mar 2017268
Feb 2017255
Jan 2017250
Nov 2016244
Oct 2016271
Sept 2016286
Aug 2016267
Jul 2016231
Jun 2016205
May 2016213
Feb 2016216
Jan 2016219
Dec 2015229
Oct 2015225
Sept 2015247
Aug 2015252
Jul 2015243
Jun 2015257
May 2015259
Apr 2015263
Mar 2015264
Feb 2015264
Jan 2015239
Nov 2014286
Oct 2014330
Sept 2014330
Aug 2014330
Jul 2014330
Jun 2014306
May 2014321
Apr 2014306
Mar 2014294
Feb 2014294
Jan 2014289
Dec 2013294
Nov 2013294
Oct 2013294
Sept 2013314
Aug 2013314
Jul 2013323
Jun 2013311
May 2013319
Apr 2013321
Mar 2013306
Jan 2013307
Dec 2012287
Nov 2012285
Oct 2012294
Sept 2012308
Aug 2012327
Jul 2012304
May 2012267
Apr 2012251
Dec 2011244
Nov 2011225
Oct 2011209
Sept 2011209
Jul 2011217
Jun 2011213
May 2011202
Apr 2011190
Mar 2011188
Feb 2011194
Jan 2011194
Nov 2010194
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010225
Aug 2010231
Jul 2010228
Jun 2010224
May 2010230
Jan 2010228
Dec 2009223
Nov 2009224
Oct 2009232
Sept 2009235
Aug 2009252
Jul 2009228
Jun 2009228
May 2009231
Apr 2009230
Mar 2009229
Feb 2009221
Jan 2009226

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-585-73-retail-kg.