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Maize in Karofane

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 32% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 10% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

155–279

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–284

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 62% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 155 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Karofane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 62% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 155 and 279 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 284 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 195–273 242 182–296 324 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 174–282 228 162–297 328 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 155–279 217 142–310 308 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 150–277 206 123–354 291 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–284 212 144–367 283 –
Price history (170 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026265
Aug 2026264
Jul 2026238
Jun 2026220
May 2026163
Apr 2026177
Mar 2026196
Feb 2026211
Jan 2026221
Dec 2025221
Nov 2025266
Oct 2025277
Sept 2025296
Aug 2025296
Jul 2025322
Jun 2025337
May 2025357
Apr 2025352
Mar 2025325
Feb 2025353
Jan 2025321
Dec 2024306
Nov 2024361
Oct 2024395
Sept 2024396
Aug 2024437
Jul 2024426
Jun 2024390
May 2024353
Apr 2024337
Mar 2024297
Feb 2024270
Jan 2024256
Dec 2023318
Nov 2023365
Oct 2023418
Sept 2023330
Aug 2023298
Jun 2023273
May 2023263
Apr 2023253
Mar 2023253
Feb 2023251
Jan 2023248
Dec 2022266
Nov 2022300
Oct 2022317
Sept 2022279
Aug 2022318
Jul 2022295
Jun 2022395
May 2022296
Apr 2022283
Mar 2022283
Feb 2022279
Jan 2022278
Dec 2021278
Nov 2021286
Oct 2021316
Sept 2021316
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021262
Jun 2021281
May 2021281
Apr 2021295
Mar 2021250
Feb 2021249
Jan 2021244
Dec 2020220
Nov 2020261
Oct 2020259
Sept 2020259
Aug 2020259
Jul 2020228
Jun 2020231
May 2020241
Apr 2020212
Mar 2020203
Feb 2020216
Jan 2020241
Dec 2019242
Nov 2019228
Sept 2019243
Jun 2019219
May 2019247
Apr 2019230
Mar 2019226
Feb 2019263
Jan 2019252
Dec 2018241
Nov 2018250
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018247
Aug 2018248
Jul 2018248
Jun 2018245
May 2018246
Apr 2018257
Mar 2018267
Feb 2018249
Jan 2018248
Dec 2017265
Nov 2017271
Oct 2017275
Sept 2017280
Jul 2017302
Jun 2017288
May 2017270
Apr 2017270
Mar 2017238
Feb 2017212
Jan 2017212
Nov 2016187
Oct 2016187
Sept 2016255
Aug 2016255
Jul 2016285
Jun 2016253
May 2016233
Apr 2016225
Mar 2016247
Feb 2016247
Jan 2016254
Dec 2015257
Oct 2015216
Sept 2015216
Aug 2015248
Jul 2015235
Jun 2015223
May 2015230
Apr 2015231
Mar 2015252
Feb 2015250
Jan 2015262
Nov 2014250
Oct 2014234
Sept 2014231
Aug 2014286
Jul 2014294
Feb 2014299
Oct 2013260
May 2012260
Apr 2012257
Dec 2011252
Nov 2011260
Oct 2011252
Jul 2011265
May 2011259
Apr 2011254
Feb 2011246
Jan 2011211
Dec 2010152
Nov 2010160
Oct 2010143
Sept 2010252
Aug 2010270
Jul 2010252
Jun 2010260
May 2010264
Apr 2010264
Feb 2010271
Jan 2010271
Dec 2009214
Nov 2009250
Oct 2009251
Sept 2009267
Aug 2009292
Jul 2009265
May 2009273
Apr 2009264

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-589-51-retail-kg.