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Rice (imported) in Karofane

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 14% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

447–535

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

421–548

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 447 and 535 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 421 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Karofane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 14% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 447 and 535 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 421 and 548 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 480–522 501 446–548 607 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 465–526 499 418–567 606 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 447–535 497 410–604 583 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 433–543 495 384–639 584 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 421–548 493 368–634 577 –
Price history (171 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025520
Sept 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025600
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025600
Dec 2024650
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024650
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024650
Jun 2024600
May 2024600
Apr 2024600
Mar 2024580
Feb 2024590
Jan 2024600
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023600
Oct 2023600
Sept 2023700
Aug 2023500
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022400
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019500
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019500
Jun 2019400
May 2019400
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Nov 2017400
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017438
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017400
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017400
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016400
Aug 2016400
Jul 2016400
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Oct 2015400
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015499
Jul 2015496
Jun 2015494
May 2015490
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015400
Jan 2015400
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014526
Sept 2014526
Aug 2014508
Jul 2014571
Feb 2014494
Oct 2013450
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Jan 2011500
Nov 2010500
Oct 2010500
Sept 2010500
Aug 2010500
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010500
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009500
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009500

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-589-64-retail-kg.