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Sorghum in Karofane

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 21% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 6% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

113–245

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

119–258

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 113 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 119 and 258 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Karofane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 21% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 113 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 119 and 258 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 178–270 227 160–283 319 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 138–249 183 130–279 258 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 113–245 163 95.1–300 204 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 118–250 165 111–349 219 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 119–258 172 116–341 229 –
Price history (172 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026248
Aug 2026249
Jul 2026265
Jun 2026262
May 2026219
Apr 2026201
Mar 2026186
Feb 2026168
Jan 2026152
Dec 2025154
Nov 2025174
Oct 2025186
Sept 2025188
Aug 2025204
Jul 2025288
Jun 2025295
May 2025280
Apr 2025272
Mar 2025271
Feb 2025280
Jan 2025290
Dec 2024244
Nov 2024204
Oct 2024208
Sept 2024353
Aug 2024392
Jul 2024413
Jun 2024375
May 2024351
Apr 2024315
Mar 2024292
Feb 2024286
Jan 2024270
Dec 2023243
Nov 2023250
Oct 2023265
Sept 2023316
Aug 2023316
Jun 2023283
May 2023267
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023245
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023226
Dec 2022182
Nov 2022280
Oct 2022296
Sept 2022220
Aug 2022338
Jul 2022317
Jun 2022317
May 2022310
Apr 2022297
Mar 2022280
Feb 2022247
Jan 2022213
Dec 2021202
Nov 2021159
Oct 2021300
Sept 2021300
Aug 2021298
Jul 2021289
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021271
Mar 2021245
Feb 2021218
Jan 2021137
Dec 2020161
Nov 2020113
Oct 2020211
Sept 2020240
Aug 2020269
Jul 2020205
Jun 2020205
May 2020202
Apr 2020194
Mar 2020192
Feb 2020162
Jan 2020171
Dec 2019158
Nov 2019150
Oct 2019156
Sept 2019157
Aug 2019179
Jun 2019173
May 2019188
Apr 2019154
Mar 2019154
Feb 2019132
Jan 2019129
Dec 2018147
Nov 2018117
Oct 2018156
Sept 2018230
Aug 2018235
Jul 2018224
Jun 2018236
May 2018218
Apr 2018210
Mar 2018202
Feb 2018188
Jan 2018182
Dec 2017144
Nov 2017146
Oct 2017255
Sept 2017268
Jul 2017283
Jun 2017261
May 2017227
Apr 2017224
Mar 2017150
Feb 2017129
Jan 2017129
Nov 2016109
Oct 2016109
Sept 2016347
Aug 2016347
Jul 2016289
Jun 2016233
May 2016233
Apr 2016233
Mar 2016214
Feb 2016214
Jan 2016192
Dec 2015184
Oct 2015237
Sept 2015237
Aug 2015233
Jul 2015221
Jun 2015222
May 2015191
Apr 2015192
Mar 2015179
Feb 2015179
Jan 2015174
Nov 2014189
Oct 2014241
Sept 2014241
Aug 2014251
Jul 2014257
Feb 2014212
Oct 2013217
May 2012246
Apr 2012253
Dec 2011177
Nov 2011158
Oct 2011134
Jul 2011137
May 2011144
Apr 2011167
Feb 2011144
Jan 2011144
Dec 2010136
Nov 2010126
Oct 2010125
Sept 2010260
Aug 2010305
Jul 2010251
Jun 2010236
May 2010222
Apr 2010203
Feb 2010171
Jan 2010168
Dec 2009146
Nov 2009161
Oct 2009149
Sept 2009174
Aug 2009194
Jul 2009174
May 2009156
Apr 2009136

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-589-65-retail-kg.