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Millet in Karofane

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 3% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 12% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–291

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

177–310

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 177 and 310 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Karofane: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 177 and 310 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 226–295 254 199–310 340 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 188–288 227 161–296 292 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–291 218 143–299 279 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 178–296 224 152–311 287 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 177–310 232 141–319 314 –
Price history (172 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026250
Aug 2026280
Jul 2026310
Jun 2026312
May 2026274
Apr 2026263
Mar 2026270
Feb 2026235
Jan 2026240
Dec 2025224
Nov 2025223
Oct 2025223
Sept 2025242
Aug 2025276
Jul 2025347
Jun 2025371
May 2025355
Apr 2025351
Mar 2025344
Feb 2025330
Jan 2025344
Dec 2024325
Nov 2024312
Oct 2024260
Sept 2024300
Aug 2024516
Jul 2024495
Jun 2024446
May 2024399
Apr 2024384
Mar 2024348
Feb 2024343
Jan 2024327
Dec 2023292
Nov 2023285
Oct 2023304
Sept 2023374
Aug 2023374
Jun 2023348
May 2023354
Apr 2023338
Mar 2023338
Feb 2023314
Jan 2023289
Dec 2022279
Nov 2022320
Oct 2022313
Sept 2022264
Aug 2022419
Jul 2022370
Jun 2022370
May 2022364
Apr 2022356
Mar 2022356
Feb 2022348
Jan 2022301
Dec 2021287
Nov 2021273
Oct 2021373
Sept 2021373
Aug 2021370
Jul 2021363
Jun 2021333
May 2021326
Apr 2021326
Mar 2021298
Feb 2021297
Jan 2021258
Dec 2020205
Nov 2020220
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020289
Aug 2020327
Jul 2020271
Jun 2020271
May 2020277
Apr 2020265
Mar 2020261
Feb 2020244
Jan 2020228
Dec 2019200
Nov 2019188
Oct 2019179
Sept 2019211
Aug 2019200
Jun 2019241
May 2019253
Apr 2019202
Mar 2019202
Feb 2019196
Jan 2019202
Dec 2018208
Nov 2018198
Oct 2018208
Sept 2018286
Aug 2018305
Jul 2018323
Jun 2018326
May 2018298
Apr 2018283
Mar 2018280
Feb 2018246
Jan 2018274
Dec 2017227
Nov 2017239
Oct 2017279
Sept 2017289
Jul 2017310
Jun 2017305
May 2017302
Apr 2017303
Mar 2017257
Feb 2017224
Jan 2017224
Nov 2016152
Oct 2016152
Sept 2016283
Aug 2016283
Jul 2016243
Jun 2016226
May 2016226
Apr 2016202
Mar 2016229
Feb 2016229
Jan 2016212
Dec 2015202
Oct 2015207
Sept 2015207
Aug 2015209
Jul 2015206
Jun 2015204
May 2015174
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015163
Feb 2015165
Jan 2015139
Nov 2014173
Oct 2014164
Sept 2014175
Aug 2014237
Jul 2014250
Feb 2014248
Oct 2013236
May 2012253
Apr 2012243
Dec 2011273
Nov 2011199
Oct 2011148
Sept 2011168
Jul 2011180
May 2011184
Apr 2011185
Feb 2011180
Jan 2011167
Dec 2010142
Nov 2010130
Sept 2010246
Aug 2010243
Jul 2010232
Jun 2010240
May 2010230
Apr 2010220
Feb 2010210
Jan 2010192
Dec 2009158
Nov 2009195
Oct 2009164
Sept 2009198
Aug 2009227
Jul 2009206
May 2009174
Apr 2009167

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-589-73-retail-kg.