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Maize in Katako

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 35% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

138–207

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

128–214

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 128 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Katako: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 35% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 128 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 162–200 184 150–217 303 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 146–205 170 134–208 278 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 138–207 164 108–222 265 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 132–211 163 102–234 261 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 128–214 163 105–260 263 –
Price history (386 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026191
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026192
Jun 2026187
May 2026178
Apr 2026176
Mar 2026171
Feb 2026173
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025194
Nov 2025193
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025229
Aug 2025236
Jul 2025271
Jun 2025276
May 2025284
Apr 2025287
Mar 2025285
Feb 2025293
Jan 2025307
Dec 2024275
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024288
Sept 2024382
Aug 2024410
Jul 2024432
Jun 2024402
May 2024367
Apr 2024342
Mar 2024316
Feb 2024286
Jan 2024277
Dec 2023272
Nov 2023296
Oct 2023300
Sept 2023380
Aug 2023373
Jul 2023310
Jun 2023252
May 2023235
Apr 2023234
Mar 2023252
Feb 2023247
Jan 2023232
Dec 2022253
Nov 2022315
Oct 2022272
Sept 2022281
Aug 2022294
Jul 2022294
Jun 2022312
May 2022312
Apr 2022314
Mar 2022314
Feb 2022286
Jan 2022269
Dec 2021258
Nov 2021243
Oct 2021296
Sept 2021303
Aug 2021318
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021248
May 2021248
Apr 2021229
Mar 2021231
Feb 2021231
Jan 2021220
Dec 2020222
Nov 2020192
Oct 2020203
Sept 2020216
Aug 2020220
Jul 2020213
Jun 2020213
May 2020211
Apr 2020211
Mar 2020192
Feb 2020191
Jan 2020191
Dec 2019192
Nov 2019192
Oct 2019194
Sept 2019193
Aug 2019192
Jul 2019194
Jun 2019155
May 2019195
Apr 2019192
Mar 2019193
Feb 2019194
Jan 2019192
Dec 2018192
Nov 2018195
Sept 2018196
Aug 2018216
Jul 2018216
Jun 2018214
May 2018216
Apr 2018196
Mar 2018195
Feb 2018195
Jan 2018192
Dec 2017192
Nov 2017195
Oct 2017217
Sept 2017237
Aug 2017212
Jul 2017237
Jun 2017237
May 2017235
Apr 2017234
Mar 2017195
Feb 2017192
Jan 2017196
Nov 2016214
Oct 2016214
Sept 2016235
Aug 2016235
Jul 2016233
Jun 2016235
May 2016216
Apr 2016214
Mar 2016193
Feb 2016192
Jan 2016188
Dec 2015195
Oct 2015217
Sept 2015217
Aug 2015213
Jul 2015196
Jun 2015197
May 2015196
Apr 2015196
Mar 2015194
Feb 2015193
Jan 2015192
Nov 2014195
Oct 2014195
Sept 2014196
Aug 2014198
Jul 2014197
Jun 2014208
May 2014198
Apr 2014198
Mar 2014194
Feb 2014195
Jan 2014198
Dec 2013198
Nov 2013196
Oct 2013201
Sept 2013218
Aug 2013218
Jul 2013218
Jun 2013234
May 2013239
Apr 2013288
Mar 2013218
Feb 2013218
Jan 2013216
Dec 2012214
Nov 2012195
Oct 2012220
Sept 2012263
Aug 2012257
Jul 2012247
May 2012217
Apr 2012218
Mar 2012218
Feb 2012217
Jan 2012218
Dec 2011217
Nov 2011217
Oct 2011235
Sept 2011218
Jul 2011208
Jun 2011200
May 2011202
Apr 2011198
Mar 2011198
Feb 2011196
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010194
Oct 2010190
Sept 2010202
Aug 2010202
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010200
May 2010202
Apr 2010199
Mar 2010197
Feb 2010210
Jan 2010200
Dec 2009208
Nov 2009199
Oct 2009212
Sept 2009259
Aug 2009268
Jul 2009285
Jun 2009254
May 2009212
Apr 2009199
Mar 2009206
Feb 2009185
Jan 2009176
Dec 2008179
Nov 2008173
Oct 2008147
Sept 2008136
Aug 2008135
Jul 2008133
Jun 2008131
May 2008127
Apr 2008126
Mar 2008129
Feb 2008142
Jan 2008136
Dec 2007134
Nov 2007139
Oct 2007149
Sept 2007164
Aug 2007165
Jul 2007166
Jun 2007170
May 2007177
Apr 2007171
Mar 2007161
Feb 2007177
Jan 2007184
Dec 2006168
Nov 2006173
Oct 2006204
Sept 2006225
Aug 2006290
Jul 2006302
Jun 2006263
May 2006216
Apr 2006210
Mar 2006200
Feb 2006173
Jan 2006161
Dec 2005151
Nov 2005144
Oct 2005145
Sept 2005143
Aug 2005144
Jul 2005140
Jun 2005124
May 2005126
Apr 2005125
Mar 2005118
Feb 2005121
Jan 2005121
Dec 2004122
Nov 2004125
Oct 2004133
Sept 2004139
Aug 2004145
Jul 2004142
Jun 2004141
May 2004146
Apr 2004144
Mar 2004144
Feb 2004153
Jan 2004147
Dec 2003154
Nov 2003146
Oct 2003167
Sept 2003179
Aug 2003212
Jul 2003211
Jun 2003189
May 2003188
Apr 2003198
Mar 2003188
Feb 2003186
Jan 2003178
Dec 2002275
Nov 2002146Data error
Oct 2002300Data error
Sept 2002146Data error
Aug 2002288Data error
Jul 2002149Data error
Jun 2002300Data error
May 2002142Data error
Apr 2002300
Mar 2002212
Feb 2002300
Jan 2002208
Dec 2001300
Nov 2001166Data error
Oct 2001300Data error
Sept 2001165
Aug 2001275
Jul 2001168
Jun 2001300Data error
May 2001167Data error
Apr 2001300Data error
Mar 2001138Data error
Feb 2001288Data error
Jan 2001126
Dec 2000125
Nov 2000123
Oct 2000125
Sept 2000126
Aug 2000126
Jul 2000126
Jun 2000126
May 2000123
Apr 2000123
Mar 2000124
Feb 2000124
Jan 2000108
Dec 1999112
Nov 1999119
Oct 1999120
Sept 1999131
Aug 1999140
Jul 1999144
Jun 1999145
May 1999143
Apr 1999144
Mar 1999135
Feb 1999133
Jan 1999133
Dec 1998135
Nov 1998125
Oct 1998146
Sept 1998168
Aug 1998200
Jul 1998195
Jun 1998212
May 1998210
Apr 1998198
Mar 1998171
Feb 1998164
Jan 1998162
Dec 1997160
Nov 1997164
Oct 1997154
Sept 1997181
Aug 1997192
Jul 1997186
Jun 1997179
May 1997186
Apr 1997182
Mar 1997160
Feb 1997150
Jan 1997144
Dec 1996144
Nov 1996133
Oct 1996124
Sept 1996136
Aug 1996146
Jul 1996136
Jun 1996138
May 1996145
Apr 1996133
Mar 1996106
Feb 1996103
Jan 1996100
Dec 1995105
Nov 1995119
Oct 1995136
Sept 1995134
Aug 1995137
Jul 1995133
Jun 1995106
May 1995100
Apr 1995110
Mar 199596
Feb 199594
Jan 199593
Dec 199481
Nov 199481
Oct 199486
Sept 199497
Aug 199497
Jul 199495
Jun 199493
May 199485
Apr 199484
Mar 199487
Feb 199484
Jan 199474

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-590-51-retail-kg.