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Sorghum in Katako

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 8% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

195–275

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

189–288

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 195 and 275 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 189 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Katako: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 195 and 275 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 189 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 225–269 242 223–288 337 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 210–275 236 204–299 325 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 195–275 225 168–304 302 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 187–281 221 160–411 290 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 189–288 228 174–421 306 –
Price history (299 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026255
Aug 2026250
Jul 2026248
Jun 2026244
May 2026233
Apr 2026234
Mar 2026235
Feb 2026237
Jan 2026237
Dec 2025237
Nov 2025237
Oct 2025243
Sept 2025258
Aug 2025266
Jul 2025290
Jun 2025291
May 2025295
Apr 2025304
Mar 2025307
Feb 2025300
Jan 2025338
Dec 2024301
Nov 2024300
Oct 2024401
Sept 2024468
Aug 2024475
Jul 2024453
Jun 2024407
May 2024360
Apr 2024348
Mar 2024330
Feb 2024317
Jan 2024306
Dec 2023290
Nov 2023323
Oct 2023353
Sept 2023356
Aug 2023366
Jul 2023327
Jun 2023298
May 2023300
Apr 2023300
Mar 2023293
Feb 2023277
Jan 2023279
Dec 2022300
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022313
Sept 2022323
Aug 2022323
Jul 2022323
Jun 2022320
May 2022320
Apr 2022313
Mar 2022298
Feb 2022294
Jan 2022294
Dec 2021285
Nov 2021280
Oct 2021298
Sept 2021298
Aug 2021320
Jul 2021297
Jun 2021258
May 2021258
Apr 2021258
Mar 2021255
Feb 2021249
Jan 2021229
Dec 2020182
Nov 2020234
Oct 2020282
Sept 2020282
Aug 2020282
Jul 2020250
Jun 2020240
May 2020240
Apr 2020240
Mar 2020240
Feb 2020153
Jan 2020229
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019199
Oct 2019198
Sept 2019206
Aug 2019214
Jul 2019216
Jun 2019159
May 2019238
Apr 2019233
Mar 2019233
Feb 2019234
Jan 2019240
Dec 2018240
Nov 2018245
Oct 2018245
Sept 2018260
Aug 2018262
Jul 2018262
Jun 2018258
May 2018260
Apr 2018260
Mar 2018255
Feb 2018255
Jan 2018258
Dec 2017278
Nov 2017282
Oct 2017268
Sept 2017278
Aug 2017272
Jul 2017258
Jun 2017258
May 2017242
Apr 2017237
Mar 2017237
Feb 2017233
Jan 2017240
Nov 2016245
Oct 2016245
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016239
Jul 2016237
Jun 2016239
May 2016222
Apr 2016222
Mar 2016221
Feb 2016220
Jan 2016221
Dec 2015245
Oct 2015244
Sept 2015243
Aug 2015243
Jul 2015237
Jun 2015222
May 2015224
Apr 2015226
Mar 2015222
Feb 2015221
Jan 2015222
Nov 2014243
Oct 2014244
Sept 2014245
Aug 2014240
Jul 2014241
Jun 2014243
May 2014244
Apr 2014245
Mar 2014240
Feb 2014241
Jan 2014243
Dec 2013242
Nov 2013244
Oct 2013247
Sept 2013245
Aug 2013261
Jul 2013257
Jun 2013243
May 2013244
Apr 2013249
Mar 2013243
Feb 2013243
Jan 2013273
Dec 2012246
Nov 2012262
Oct 2012265
Sept 2012286
Aug 2012276
Jul 2012243
May 2012240
Apr 2012242
Mar 2012239
Feb 2012229
Jan 2012245
Dec 2011245
Nov 2011242
Oct 2011222
Sept 2011204
Jul 2011212
Jun 2011198
May 2011202
Apr 2011204
Mar 2011204
Feb 2011197
Jan 2011197
Nov 2010198
Oct 2010202
Sept 2010210
Aug 2010224
Jul 2010216
Jun 2010218
May 2010217
Apr 2010219
Mar 2010221
Feb 2010218
Jan 2010224
Dec 2009225
Oct 2009227
Sept 2009238
Aug 2009242
Jul 2009233
Jun 2009233
May 2009237
Apr 2009238
Mar 2009234
Feb 2009235
Jan 2009215
Dec 2008208
Nov 2008214
Oct 2008192
Sept 2008231
Aug 2008251
Jul 2008252
Jun 2008230
May 2008203
Apr 2008202
Mar 2008175
Feb 2008176
Jan 2008160
Dec 2007162
Oct 2007166
Sept 2007168
Aug 2007166
Jul 2007160
Jun 2007160
May 2007164
Apr 2007164
Mar 2007165
Feb 2007165
Jan 2007173
Dec 2006165
Oct 2006154
Sept 2006164
Aug 2006189
Jul 2006178
Jun 2006185
May 2006183
Apr 2006190
Mar 2006188
Feb 2006198
Jan 2006205
Dec 2005190
Nov 2005243
Oct 2005309
Sept 2005316
Aug 2005315
Jul 2005302
Jun 2005231
May 2005215
Apr 2005210
Mar 2005200
Feb 2005189
Jan 2005169
Dec 2004169
Nov 2004187
Oct 2004173
Sept 2004144
Aug 2004142
Jul 2004138
Jun 2004132
May 2004144
Apr 2004135
Mar 2004138
Feb 2004127
Jan 2004128
Dec 2003139
Nov 2003134
Oct 2003150
Sept 2003159
Aug 2003169
Jul 2003171
Jun 2003178
May 2003175
Apr 2003173
Mar 2003188
Feb 2003187
Jan 2003179
Dec 2002198
Oct 2002211
Sept 2002220
Aug 2002232
Jul 2002219
Jun 2002216
May 2002214
Apr 2002212
Mar 2002198
Feb 2002192
Jan 2002181
Dec 2001175
Nov 2001194
Oct 2001206
Sept 2001206
Aug 2001209
Jul 2001212
Jun 2001190
May 2001188
Apr 2001180
Mar 2001166
Feb 2001138
Jan 2001133

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-590-65-retail-kg.