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Millet in Katako

Niamey, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 6% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

206–307

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

194–314

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 307 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 194 and 314 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Katako: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 206 and 307 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 194 and 314 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 244–302 274 231–307 346 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–299 244 191–329 305 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 206–307 241 182–377 298 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 200–311 239 184–338 289 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 194–314 245 158–325 299 –
Price history (359 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026276
Aug 2026288
Jul 2026296
Jun 2026274
Apr 2026248
Mar 2026240
Feb 2026235
Jan 2026235
Dec 2025235
Nov 2025236
Oct 2025253
Sept 2025279
Aug 2025282
Jul 2025303
May 2025332
Apr 2025332
Mar 2025327
Feb 2025321
Jan 2025330
Dec 2024303
Nov 2024320
Oct 2024310
Sept 2024405
Aug 2024479
Jul 2024460
Jun 2024422
May 2024363
Apr 2024346
Mar 2024327
Feb 2024315
Jan 2024295
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023286
Oct 2023303
Sept 2023365
Aug 2023362
Jul 2023333
Jun 2023302
May 2023290
Apr 2023315
Mar 2023301
Feb 2023292
Jan 2023279
Dec 2022298
Nov 2022268
Oct 2022318
Sept 2022347
Aug 2022390
Jul 2022360
May 2022337
Apr 2022337
Mar 2022321
Feb 2022314
Jan 2022294
Dec 2021288
Nov 2021294
Oct 2021283
Sept 2021301
Aug 2021308
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021294
May 2021294
Apr 2021275
Mar 2021276
Feb 2021266
Jan 2021234
Dec 2020202
Nov 2020234
Oct 2020245
Sept 2020307
Aug 2020307
Jul 2020277
Jun 2020257
Apr 2020255
Mar 2020240
Feb 2020233
Jan 2020218
Dec 2019216
Nov 2019216
Oct 2019214
Sept 2019210
Aug 2019220
Jul 2019228
Jun 2019145
May 2019233
Apr 2019257
Mar 2019237
Feb 2019235
Jan 2019234
Dec 2018234
Nov 2018233
Oct 2018233
Sept 2018279
Aug 2018298
Jul 2018298
Jun 2018294
May 2018277
Apr 2018277
Mar 2018258
Feb 2018258
Jan 2018252
Dec 2017252
Nov 2017278
Oct 2017269
Sept 2017288
Aug 2017314
Jul 2017296
Apr 2017278
Mar 2017238
Feb 2017235
Jan 2017237
Nov 2016233
Oct 2016233
Sept 2016257
Aug 2016257
Jul 2016238
May 2016239
Apr 2016238
Mar 2016238
Feb 2016217
Jan 2016216
Dec 2015216
Oct 2015217
Sept 2015216
Aug 2015238
Jul 2015238
Apr 2015240
Mar 2015237
Feb 2015237
Jan 2015235
Nov 2014238
Oct 2014240
Sept 2014246
Aug 2014257
Jun 2014271
May 2014275
Apr 2014278
Mar 2014275
Feb 2014275
Jan 2014265
Dec 2013270
Nov 2013257
Oct 2013263
Sept 2013273
Aug 2013287
Jul 2013303
Apr 2013267
Mar 2013259
Feb 2013252
Jan 2013238
Dec 2012250
Nov 2012257
Oct 2012250
Sept 2012323
Aug 2012323
Jul 2012300
Apr 2012274
Mar 2012260
Feb 2012258
Jan 2012260
Dec 2011260
Nov 2011218
Oct 2011199
Sept 2011202
Jul 2011210
Jun 2011218
May 2011220
Apr 2011206
Mar 2011202
Feb 2011196
Jan 2011196
Dec 2010199
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010198
Sept 2010232
Aug 2010235
Jun 2010242
Apr 2010241
Mar 2010239
Feb 2010241
Jan 2010239
Dec 2009221
Nov 2009218
Oct 2009208
Sept 2009235
Aug 2009258
Apr 2009241
Mar 2009237
Feb 2009233
Jan 2009219
Dec 2008198
Nov 2008188
Oct 2008157
Sept 2008225
Aug 2008240
Jun 2008211
May 2008203
Apr 2008202
Mar 2008192
Feb 2008183
Jan 2008159
Dec 2007159
Nov 2007162
Oct 2007162
Sept 2007161
Aug 2007164
May 2007159
Apr 2007162
Mar 2007163
Feb 2007166
Jan 2007164
Dec 2006163
Nov 2006162
Oct 2006168
Sept 2006183
Aug 2006190
Jul 2006183
Apr 2006178
Mar 2006183
Feb 2006185
Jan 2006180
Dec 2005167
Nov 2005167
Oct 2005180
Sept 2005241
Aug 2005324
May 2005213
Apr 2005212
Mar 2005202
Feb 2005189
Jan 2005189
Dec 2004185
Nov 2004162
Oct 2004168
Sept 2004148
Aug 2004154
Jul 2004145
Jun 2004134
May 2004139
Apr 2004136
Mar 2004137
Feb 2004128
Jan 2004123
Dec 2003122
Nov 2003129
Oct 2003143
Sept 2003143
Aug 2003154
Jul 2003167
Jun 2003167
May 2003177
Apr 2003178
Mar 2003175
Feb 2003174
Jan 2003175
Dec 2002186
Nov 2002188
Oct 2002169
Sept 2002220
Aug 2002250
Jul 2002230
May 2002206
Apr 2002206
Mar 2002197
Feb 2002186
Jan 2002165
Dec 2001144
Nov 2001147
Oct 2001154
Sept 2001186
Aug 2001228
Jul 2001218
May 2001215
Apr 2001221
Mar 2001177
Feb 2001151
Jan 2001145
Dec 2000144
Nov 2000128
Oct 2000128
Sept 2000134
Aug 2000134
Jun 2000134
May 2000133
Apr 2000132
Mar 2000126
Feb 2000127
Jan 2000115
Dec 1999111
Nov 1999113
Oct 1999114
Sept 1999126
Aug 1999122
Jul 1999119
Jun 1999122
May 1999124
Apr 1999123
Mar 1999122
Feb 1999122
Jan 1999122
Dec 1998123
Nov 1998122
Oct 1998148
Sept 1998188
Aug 1998249
Jul 1998244
Jun 1998232
May 1998229
Apr 1998210
Mar 1998186
Feb 1998168
Jan 1998165
Dec 1997168
Nov 1997168
Oct 1997156
Sept 1997174
Aug 1997186
Jul 1997180
Jun 1997167
May 1997164
Apr 1997169
Mar 1997147
Feb 1997137
Jan 1997123
Dec 1996114
Nov 1996107
Oct 1996119
Sept 1996133
Aug 1996159
Jul 1996133
Jun 1996135
May 1996136
Apr 1996120
Mar 1996104
Feb 1996100
Jan 199693
Dec 199593
Nov 199590
Oct 199580
Sept 199582
Aug 199593
Jun 199586
May 199583
Apr 199586
Mar 199585
Feb 199584
Jan 199582
Dec 199486
Nov 199486
Oct 199490
Sept 199497
Aug 1994102
Jul 1994106
Jun 1994105
May 199494
Apr 199492
Mar 199492
Feb 199487
Jan 199478

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-590-73-retail-kg.