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Rice (imported) in Kazoe

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

396–546

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

395–571

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 396 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 395 and 571 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Kazoe: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 15% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 396 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 395 and 571 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 443–515 491 426–560 585 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 414–527 487 404–599 585 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 396–546 479 386–657 585 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 386–556 475 367–737 582 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 395–571 476 388–755 581 –
Price history (192 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026494
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026516
Jun 2026439
May 2026434
Apr 2026450
Feb 2026449
Jan 2026459
Dec 2025449
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025503
Sept 2025525
Aug 2025525
Jul 2025546
Jun 2025586
May 2025596
Apr 2025625
Mar 2025621
Feb 2025650
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024738
Nov 2024771
Oct 2024808
Sept 2024777
Aug 2024748
Jul 2024722
Jun 2024680
May 2024691
Apr 2024588
Mar 2024540
Feb 2024568
Jan 2024525
Dec 2023620
Nov 2023620
Oct 2023560
Sept 2023515
Aug 2023480
Jul 2023440
Jun 2023440
May 2023440
Apr 2023440
Mar 2023440
Feb 2023440
Jan 2023440
Dec 2022440
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022455
Sept 2022457
Aug 2022458
Jul 2022455
Jun 2022452
May 2022446
Apr 2022443
Mar 2022440
Feb 2022548
Jan 2022538
Dec 2021532
Nov 2021522
Oct 2021512
Sept 2021502
Aug 2021494
Jul 2021481
Jun 2021455
May 2021455
Apr 2021453
Mar 2021448
Feb 2021440
Jan 2021437
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020432
Oct 2020463
Sept 2020463
Aug 2020462
Jul 2020498
Jun 2020507
May 2020429
Apr 2020423
Mar 2020444
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020577
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019432
Oct 2019446
Sept 2019445
Aug 2019439
Jul 2019473
Jun 2019439
May 2019440
Apr 2019444
Mar 2019444
Feb 2019440
Jan 2019425
Dec 2018410
Nov 2018425
Oct 2018417
Sept 2018456
Aug 2018453
Jul 2018453
Jun 2018444
May 2018449
Apr 2018454
Mar 2018449
Feb 2018452
Jan 2018436
Dec 2017410
Nov 2017444
Oct 2017440
Sept 2017436
Aug 2017437
Jul 2017436
Jun 2017432
May 2017474
Mar 2017471
Feb 2017462
Jan 2017462
Nov 2016463
Oct 2016462
Sept 2016465
Aug 2016485
Jul 2016471
Jun 2016527
May 2016545
Apr 2016550
Mar 2016550
Feb 2016515
Jan 2016490
Dec 2015490
Oct 2015556
Sept 2015538
Aug 2015554
Jul 2015578
Jun 2015554
May 2015538
Apr 2015551
Mar 2015542
Feb 2015540
Jan 2015536
Nov 2014566
Oct 2014555
Sept 2014540
Aug 2014551
Jul 2014551
Jun 2014549
May 2014557
Mar 2014588
Feb 2014581
Jan 2014556
Dec 2013551
Nov 2013551
Oct 2013581
Sept 2013593
Aug 2013565
Jul 2013550
Jun 2013530
May 2013544
Apr 2013551
Mar 2013545
Jan 2013560
Dec 2012552
Nov 2012563
Oct 2012570
Sept 2012551
Aug 2012544
Jul 2012543
May 2012551
Apr 2012550
Dec 2011532
Nov 2011536
Oct 2011537
Sept 2011538
Jul 2011543
Jun 2011567
May 2011549
Apr 2011558
Mar 2011547
Jan 2011515
Dec 2010429
Nov 2010412
Oct 2010513
Sept 2010468
Aug 2010449
Feb 2010515
Jan 2010465
Dec 2009371
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009475
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009542
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Mar 2009455

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-591-64-retail-kg.