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Sorghum in Kazoe

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 0% above the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 18% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 14% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

137–269

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

138–280

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 31% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 137 and 269 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 138 and 280 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kazoe: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 31% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 137 and 269 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 138 and 280 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 421); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 202–299 256 170–313 287 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 171–301 242 132–327 276 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 137–269 186 131–352 218 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 138–278 184 135–418 224 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 138–280 187 138–421 212 –
Price history (196 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026257
Aug 2026280
Jul 2026283
Jun 2026219
May 2026213
Apr 2026213
Mar 2026191
Feb 2026158
Jan 2026149
Dec 2025162
Nov 2025167
Oct 2025214
Sept 2025221
Aug 2025200
Jul 2025206
Jun 2025213
May 2025237
Apr 2025207
Mar 2025201
Feb 2025218
Jan 2025273
Dec 2024225
Nov 2024240
Oct 2024329
Sept 2024417
Aug 2024462
Jul 2024404
Jun 2024287
May 2024285
Apr 2024280
Mar 2024270
Feb 2024265
Jan 2024243
Dec 2023252
Nov 2023252
Oct 2023289
Sept 2023273
Aug 2023264
Jul 2023225
Jun 2023225
May 2023224
Apr 2023211
Mar 2023171
Feb 2023170
Jan 2023168
Dec 2022215
Nov 2022246
Oct 2022299
Sept 2022320
Aug 2022318
Jul 2022293
Jun 2022282
May 2022281
Apr 2022268
Mar 2022259
Feb 2022237
Jan 2022201
Dec 2021189
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021231
Sept 2021267
Aug 2021263
Jul 2021253
Jun 2021218
May 2021218
Apr 2021220
Mar 2021217
Feb 2021168
Jan 2021166
Dec 2020241
Nov 2020157
Oct 2020288
Sept 2020276
Aug 2020264
Jul 2020225
Jun 2020154
May 2020160
Apr 2020155
Mar 2020155
Feb 2020172
Jan 2020180
Dec 2019148
Nov 2019148
Oct 2019149
Sept 2019157
Aug 2019153
Jul 2019150
Jun 2019155
May 2019166
Apr 2019174
Mar 2019174
Feb 2019152
Jan 2019153
Dec 2018154
Sept 2018240
Aug 2018245
Jul 2018245
Jun 2018241
May 2018229
Apr 2018219
Mar 2018206
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018208
Dec 2017267
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017280
Sept 2017280
Aug 2017208
Jul 2017280
Jun 2017258
May 2017243
Apr 2017224
Mar 2017204
Feb 2017183
Jan 2017183
Nov 2016178
Oct 2016208
Sept 2016190
Aug 2016193
Jul 2016200
Jun 2016178
May 2016171
Feb 2016130
Jan 2016138
Dec 2015138
Oct 2015220
Sept 2015228
Aug 2015235
Jul 2015238
Jun 2015240
May 2015199
Apr 2015206
Mar 2015222
Feb 2015221
Jan 2015216
Nov 2014241
Oct 2014247
Sept 2014255
Aug 2014249
Jul 2014243
Jun 2014228
May 2014220
Apr 2014218
Mar 2014224
Feb 2014224
Jan 2014225
Dec 2013226
Nov 2013247
Oct 2013243
Sept 2013252
Aug 2013265
Jul 2013254
Jun 2013208
May 2013208
Apr 2013208
Mar 2013187
Jan 2013164
Dec 2012144
Nov 2012158
Oct 2012185
Sept 2012298
Aug 2012279
Jul 2012252
May 2012227
Apr 2012224
Dec 2011159
Nov 2011137
Oct 2011145
Sept 2011161
Jul 2011156
Jun 2011129
May 2011184
Apr 2011123
Mar 2011122
Jan 2011131
Dec 2010106
Nov 2010129
Oct 2010216
Sept 2010234
Aug 2010259
Jul 2010262
Jun 2010231
May 2010200
Apr 2010202
Feb 2010214
Jan 2010191
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009174
Oct 2009180
Sept 2009208
Aug 2009221
Jul 2009202
Jun 2009201
May 2009195
Apr 2009192
Mar 2009198

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-591-65-retail-kg.