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Maize in Kirtachi

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 3% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

147–219

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

140–239

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Kirtachi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 147 and 219 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 140 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 175–218 197 163–240 292 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 160–214 176 130–232 250 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 147–219 167 129–243 241 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 146–230 177 119–276 257 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 140–239 178 112–349 265 –
Price history (201 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026195
Aug 2026205
Jul 2026204
Jun 2026205
May 2026203
Apr 2026202
Mar 2026180
Feb 2026184
Jan 2026197
Dec 2025193
Nov 2025186
Oct 2025183
Sept 2025199
Aug 2025224
Jul 2025286
Jun 2025286
May 2025282
Apr 2025286
Mar 2025286
Feb 2025286
Jan 2025312
Dec 2024269
Nov 2024205
Oct 2024267
Sept 2024383
Aug 2024390
Jul 2024421
Jun 2024417
May 2024390
Apr 2024371
Mar 2024333
Feb 2024312
Jan 2024293
Dec 2023269
Nov 2023267
Oct 2023273
Sept 2023349
Aug 2023329
Jul 2023292
May 2023248
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023245
Feb 2023245
Jan 2023245
Dec 2022238
Nov 2022258
Oct 2022243
Sept 2022275
Aug 2022290
Jul 2022309
Jun 2022309
May 2022302
Apr 2022310
Mar 2022313
Feb 2022299
Jan 2022258
Nov 2021249
Oct 2021239
Sept 2021310
Aug 2021309
Jul 2021263
Jun 2021262
May 2021252
Apr 2021249
Mar 2021264
Feb 2021246
Jan 2021220
Dec 2020240
Nov 2020198
Oct 2020201
Sept 2020243
Aug 2020240
Jul 2020238
Jun 2020207
May 2020207
Apr 2020220
Mar 2020196
Feb 2020196
Jan 2020191
Dec 2019196
Nov 2019179
Oct 2019185
Sept 2019187
Aug 2019188
Jul 2019233
Jun 2019199
May 2019206
Apr 2019206
Mar 2019202
Feb 2019206
Jan 2019199
Dec 2018206
Nov 2018191
Oct 2018193
Sept 2018192
Aug 2018165
Jul 2018227
Jun 2018227
May 2018226
Apr 2018216
Mar 2018217
Feb 2018202
Jan 2018207
Dec 2017207
Oct 2017202
Sept 2017235
Aug 2017248
Jul 2017248
Jun 2017226
May 2017277
Apr 2017247
Mar 2017204
Feb 2017206
Jan 2017206
Nov 2016184
Oct 2016199
Sept 2016227
Aug 2016241
Jul 2016246
Jun 2016228
May 2016239
Apr 2016226
Mar 2016207
Feb 2016207
Jan 2016207
Dec 2015206
Oct 2015221
Sept 2015225
Aug 2015227
Jul 2015219
Jun 2015205
May 2015205
Apr 2015199
Mar 2015178
Feb 2015175
Jan 2015172
Nov 2014184
Oct 2014173
Sept 2014166
Aug 2014207
Jul 2014207
Jun 2014206
May 2014204
Apr 2014205
Mar 2014207
Feb 2014206
Jan 2014208
Dec 2013211
Nov 2013204
Oct 2013209
Sept 2013231
Aug 2013244
Jul 2013232
Jun 2013239
May 2013231
Apr 2013230
Mar 2013224
Jan 2013206
Dec 2012216
Nov 2012213
Oct 2012222
Sept 2012265
Aug 2012278
Jul 2012267
May 2012231
Apr 2012232
Dec 2011220
Nov 2011220
Oct 2011243
Sept 2011224
Jul 2011224
Jun 2011229
May 2011236
Apr 2011192
Mar 2011186
Feb 2011190
Jan 2011185
Dec 2010184
Nov 2010175
Oct 2010174
Sept 2010197
Aug 2010229
Jul 2010210
Jun 2010247
May 2010206
Apr 2010201
Mar 2010197
Feb 2010193
Jan 2010195
Dec 2009207
Nov 2009207
Oct 2009186
Sept 2009258
Aug 2009266
Jul 2009252
Jun 2009247
May 2009241
Apr 2009218
Mar 2009230
Feb 2009223
Jan 2009222

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-593-51-retail-kg.