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Rice (imported) in Kirtachi

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

448–563

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

426–586

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 448 and 563 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 426 and 586 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Kirtachi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 448 and 563 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 426 and 586 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 481–542 506 443–583 662 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 456–557 506 413–616 655 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 448–563 506 411–655 645 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 435–584 502 382–711 663 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 426–586 503 364–715 641 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026525
May 2026500
Apr 2026520
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025513
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025700
Jun 2025688
May 2025680
Apr 2025650
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025640
Dec 2024700
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024770
Jul 2024780
Jun 2024780
May 2024790
Apr 2024680
Mar 2024680
Feb 2024763
Jan 2024700
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023700
Oct 2023667
Sept 2023600
Aug 2023583
Jul 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021483
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021500
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020500
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020413
May 2020400
Apr 2020412
Mar 2020400
Feb 2020400
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019400
Nov 2019400
Oct 2019400
Sept 2019400
Aug 2019400
Jul 2019448
Jun 2019400
May 2019450
Apr 2019400
Mar 2019400
Feb 2019400
Jan 2019400
Dec 2018405
Nov 2018400
Oct 2018400
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018400
May 2018400
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017400
Oct 2017400
Sept 2017417
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017400
Jun 2017400
May 2017450
Apr 2017400
Mar 2017400
Feb 2017400
Jan 2017372
Nov 2016400
Oct 2016400
Sept 2016425
Aug 2016413
Jul 2016467
Jun 2016400
May 2016400
Apr 2016400
Mar 2016400
Feb 2016400
Jan 2016400
Dec 2015400
Oct 2015420
Sept 2015400
Aug 2015400
Jul 2015400
Jun 2015400
May 2015400
Apr 2015400
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015412
Jan 2015410
Nov 2014400
Oct 2014400
Sept 2014400
Aug 2014400
Jul 2014417
Jun 2014450
May 2014450
Apr 2014475
Mar 2014450
Feb 2014438
Jan 2014440
Dec 2013425
Nov 2013450
Oct 2013438
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013450
Jul 2013450
Jun 2013438
May 2013417
Apr 2013450
Mar 2013475
Jan 2013450
Dec 2012450
Nov 2012450
Oct 2012450
Sept 2012450
Aug 2012450
Jul 2012450
May 2012450
Apr 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011450
Sept 2011450
Jul 2011450
Jun 2011450
May 2011450
Apr 2011450
Mar 2011450
Jan 2011450
Dec 2010460
Nov 2010450
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010420
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010433
Apr 2010400
Mar 2010412
Feb 2010450
Jan 2010450
Dec 2009450
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Sept 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009460
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-593-64-retail-kg.