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Sorghum in Kirtachi

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 4% above the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

170–251

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

174–266

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 24% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 174 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Kirtachi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 24% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 170 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 174 and 266 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 203–258 230 201–270 306 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 174–245 198 163–258 252 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 170–251 195 164–274 249 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 170–257 197 144–302 256 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 174–266 207 158–346 266 –
Price history (197 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026230
Aug 2026247
Jul 2026240
Jun 2026220
May 2026200
Apr 2026200
Mar 2026200
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025201
Nov 2025196
Oct 2025212
Sept 2025242
Aug 2025254
Jul 2025260
Jun 2025296
May 2025280
Apr 2025287
Mar 2025287
Feb 2025277
Jan 2025321
Dec 2024240
Nov 2024250
Oct 2024268
Sept 2024383
Aug 2024393
Jul 2024418
Jun 2024413
May 2024381
Apr 2024348
Mar 2024327
Feb 2024291
Jan 2024286
Dec 2023281
Sept 2023345
Aug 2023343
Jul 2023294
May 2023260
Apr 2023245
Mar 2023240
Feb 2023240
Jan 2023240
Dec 2022254
Nov 2022275
Oct 2022252
Sept 2022290
Aug 2022305
Jul 2022309
Jun 2022300
May 2022302
Apr 2022308
Mar 2022310
Feb 2022296
Jan 2022249
Nov 2021238
Oct 2021253
Sept 2021306
Aug 2021303
Jul 2021263
Jun 2021272
May 2021265
Apr 2021254
Mar 2021240
Feb 2021242
Jan 2021211
Dec 2020242
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020207
Sept 2020262
Aug 2020262
Jul 2020232
Jun 2020203
May 2020202
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020201
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020186
Dec 2019186
Nov 2019192
Oct 2019189
Sept 2019196
Aug 2019199
Jul 2019224
Jun 2019204
May 2019201
Apr 2019201
Mar 2019202
Feb 2019201
Jan 2019202
Dec 2018194
Nov 2018195
Oct 2018167
Sept 2018201
Aug 2018222
Jul 2018250
Jun 2018240
May 2018242
Apr 2018232
Mar 2018242
Feb 2018235
Jan 2018220
Oct 2017201
Sept 2017235
Aug 2017241
Jul 2017240
Jun 2017243
May 2017284
Apr 2017242
Mar 2017202
Feb 2017201
Jan 2017201
Nov 2016183
Oct 2016199
Sept 2016223
Aug 2016243
Jul 2016246
Jun 2016224
May 2016199
Apr 2016200
Mar 2016202
Feb 2016202
Jan 2016202
Dec 2015201
Oct 2015203
Sept 2015201
Aug 2015202
Jul 2015194
Jun 2015201
May 2015202
Apr 2015198
Mar 2015168
Feb 2015183
Jan 2015186
Nov 2014183
Oct 2014170
Sept 2014203
Aug 2014194
Jul 2014199
Jun 2014201
May 2014209
Apr 2014233
Mar 2014201
Feb 2014201
Jan 2014209
Dec 2013212
Nov 2013223
Oct 2013220
Sept 2013236
Aug 2013251
Jul 2013244
Jun 2013238
May 2013223
Apr 2013236
Mar 2013221
Jan 2013204
Dec 2012206
Nov 2012207
Oct 2012213
Sept 2012256
Aug 2012283
Jul 2012272
May 2012240
Apr 2012233
Dec 2011220
Oct 2011195
Sept 2011206
Jul 2011221
Jun 2011216
May 2011216
Apr 2011214
Mar 2011195
Feb 2011186
Jan 2011182
Dec 2010182
Nov 2010171
Oct 2010160
Sept 2010186
Aug 2010223
Jul 2010229
Jun 2010204
May 2010193
Apr 2010198
Mar 2010185
Feb 2010184
Jan 2010192
Dec 2009193
Nov 2009203
Oct 2009158
Sept 2009239
Aug 2009252
Jul 2009246
Jun 2009221
May 2009222
Apr 2009207
Mar 2009206
Feb 2009217
Jan 2009207

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-593-65-retail-kg.