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Millet in Kirtachi

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 11% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 3% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

182–291

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

191–305

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 182 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 191 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kirtachi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 182 and 291 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 191 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 233–304 271 217–308 342 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 186–285 224 181–299 267 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 182–291 219 181–319 266 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 184–299 219 183–387 273 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 191–305 229 182–395 287 –
Price history (300 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 2026303
Jul 2026286
Jun 2026301
May 2026252
Apr 2026245
Mar 2026245
Feb 2026213
Jan 2026233
Nov 2025205
Aug 2025258
Jul 2025313
Jun 2025306
May 2025306
Apr 2025301
Mar 2025295
Feb 2025306
Jan 2025327
Nov 2024259
Oct 2024297
Jul 2024451
Jun 2024423
May 2024377
Apr 2024358
Mar 2024336
Feb 2024307
Jan 2024302
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023292
Oct 2023262
Aug 2023351
Jul 2023338
May 2023306
Apr 2023309
Mar 2023298
Feb 2023286
Jan 2023265
Nov 2022301
Sept 2022302
Aug 2022323
Jul 2022337
Jun 2022308
May 2022313
Apr 2022305
Mar 2022302
Feb 2022302
Jan 2022272
Oct 2021248
Aug 2021333
Jul 2021283
Jun 2021286
May 2021297
Apr 2021289
Mar 2021246
Feb 2021266
Jan 2021247
Nov 2020195
Oct 2020200
Sept 2020294
Aug 2020306
Jul 2020287
Jun 2020234
May 2020229
Apr 2020218
Mar 2020207
Feb 2020207
Jan 2020205
Oct 2019202
Jul 2019256
Jun 2019229
May 2019250
Apr 2019250
Mar 2019214
Feb 2019201
Jan 2019200
Dec 2018200
Nov 2018200
Oct 2018200
Sept 2018255
Jul 2018288
Jun 2018288
May 2018286
Apr 2018277
Mar 2018266
Feb 2018249
Jan 2018243
Sept 2017288
Aug 2017310
Jul 2017273
Jun 2017265
May 2017294
Apr 2017248
Mar 2017202
Feb 2017204
Jan 2017203
Jul 2016241
Jun 2016227
May 2016205
Apr 2016202
Mar 2016207
Feb 2016204
Jan 2016204
Sept 2015221
Jul 2015205
Jun 2015202
May 2015203
Apr 2015205
Mar 2015204
Feb 2015200
Jan 2015201
Nov 2014205
Sept 2014206
Aug 2014243
Jul 2014246
Jun 2014247
May 2014249
Apr 2014249
Mar 2014245
Feb 2014245
Jan 2014246
Nov 2013228
Sept 2013273
Jul 2013276
Jun 2013228
May 2013248
Apr 2013246
Mar 2013247
Feb 2013231
Jan 2013218
Oct 2012229
Sept 2012283
Jul 2012296
May 2012264
Apr 2012252
Mar 2012237
Feb 2012233
Jan 2012233
Dec 2011215
Nov 2011198
Sept 2011180
Jul 2011216
Jun 2011206
May 2011206
Apr 2011204
Mar 2011203
Feb 2011204
Jan 2011198
Dec 2010190
Oct 2010202
Jul 2010235
Jun 2010223
May 2010222
Apr 2010210
Feb 2010209
Jan 2010206
Dec 2009213
Nov 2009212
Oct 2009169
Sept 2009257
Jul 2009242
Jun 2009223
May 2009210
Apr 2009201
Mar 2009214
Feb 2009208
Jan 2009206
Dec 2008183
Nov 2008168
Aug 2008240
Jul 2008232
Jun 2008211
May 2008209
Apr 2008191
Mar 2008178
Feb 2008151
Jan 2008137
Sept 2007146
Jul 2007146
Jun 2007144
May 2007145
Apr 2007140
Mar 2007142
Feb 2007144
Jan 2007143
Dec 2006143
Oct 2006141
Jul 2006212
Jun 2006206
May 2006199
Apr 2006194
Mar 2006188
Feb 2006196
Jan 2006180
Nov 2005151
Aug 2005304
Jul 2005252
Jun 2005208
May 2005194
Apr 2005174
Mar 2005174
Feb 2005133
Jan 2005125
Dec 2004110
Nov 2004105
Sept 2004125
Aug 2004159
Jul 2004143
Jun 2004124
May 2004121
Apr 2004135
Mar 2004110
Feb 200499
Jan 2004105
Dec 200392
Sept 2003142
Aug 2003158
Jul 2003161
Jun 2003166
May 2003163
Apr 2003164
Mar 2003167
Feb 2003150
Jan 2003146
Dec 2002140
Nov 2002106
Aug 2002224
Jul 2002231
Jun 2002210
May 2002190
Apr 2002187
Mar 2002188
Feb 2002190
Jan 2002158
Sept 2001201
Jul 2001213
Jun 2001194
Aug 2000119
Jul 2000114
Jun 2000119
May 2000117
Apr 2000134
Mar 2000106
Feb 200094
Jan 200094
Nov 199992
Oct 199992
Sept 1999119
Aug 1999143
Jul 1999133
Jun 1999120
May 1999120
Apr 1999119
Mar 1999118
Feb 1999106
Jan 199994
Dec 199894
Sept 1998189
Aug 1998231
Jul 1998222
Jun 1998231
May 1998228
Apr 1998220
Mar 1998191
Feb 1998130
Jan 1998148
Nov 1997123
Oct 1997116
Aug 1997190
Jul 1997177
Jun 1997139
May 1997146
Apr 1997133
Mar 1997120
Feb 1997107
Jan 199795
Dec 199684
Nov 199665
Sept 1996106
Aug 1996108
Jul 1996119
Jun 1996110
May 1996117
Apr 1996116
Mar 199697
Feb 199666
Jan 199667
Aug 1995118
Jul 1995117
Jun 199595
May 199596
Apr 199594
Mar 199595
Feb 199595
Jan 199572
Aug 199495
Jul 199475
Jun 199475
May 199458
Apr 199457
Mar 199455
Feb 199457

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-593-73-retail-kg.