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Maize in Konni

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 37% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 12% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

123–190

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

111–199

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 123 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 111 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Konni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 37% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 123 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 111 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 144–185 167 132–210 273 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 132–186 153 112–203 246 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 123–190 147 112–240 237 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 115–192 141 103–254 223 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 111–199 146 88.2–297 232 –
Price history (192 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026177
Aug 2026174
Jul 2026179
Jun 2026178
May 2026173
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026154
Feb 2026158
Jan 2026158
Dec 2025158
Nov 2025162
Oct 2025171
Sept 2025196
Aug 2025216
Jul 2025232
Jun 2025243
May 2025245
Apr 2025256
Mar 2025253
Feb 2025272
Jan 2025283
Dec 2024268
Nov 2024248
Oct 2024283
Sept 2024360
Aug 2024405
Jul 2024426
Jun 2024380
May 2024379
Apr 2024348
Mar 2024312
Feb 2024296
Jan 2024284
Dec 2023246
Nov 2023277
Oct 2023312
Sept 2023405
Aug 2023400
Jul 2023312
Jun 2023258
May 2023237
Apr 2023236
Mar 2023235
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023236
Dec 2022228
Nov 2022287
Oct 2022234
Sept 2022247
Aug 2022257
Jul 2022258
Jun 2022258
May 2022272
Apr 2022262
Mar 2022277
Feb 2022276
Jan 2022264
Dec 2021217
Nov 2021235
Oct 2021252
Sept 2021290
Aug 2021315
Jul 2021276
Jun 2021267
May 2021267
Apr 2021253
Mar 2021231
Feb 2021217
Jan 2021217
Oct 2020217
May 2020195
Mar 2020187
Feb 2020248
Jan 2020179
Dec 2019177
Nov 2019178
Oct 2019177
Sept 2019177
Aug 2019171
Jul 2019206
Jun 2019151
Apr 2019179
Mar 2019177
Feb 2019188
Jan 2019179
Dec 2018188
Nov 2018178
Oct 2018198
Sept 2018198
Aug 2018214
Jul 2018195
Jun 2018194
May 2018194
Apr 2018217
Mar 2018177
Feb 2018179
Jan 2018180
Dec 2017198
Nov 2017238
Oct 2017238
Sept 2017238
Aug 2017277
Jul 2017238
Jun 2017266
May 2017278
Apr 2017278
Mar 2017217
Feb 2017214
Jan 2017197
Nov 2016198
Oct 2016217
Sept 2016237
Aug 2016238
Jul 2016219
Jun 2016220
May 2016199
Apr 2016197
Mar 2016172
Feb 2016188
Jan 2016200
Dec 2015200
Jul 2015195
Jun 2015196
May 2015176
Apr 2015157
Mar 2015165
Feb 2015178
Jan 2015177
Nov 2014177
Oct 2014176
Sept 2014185
Aug 2014197
Jul 2014198
Jun 2014217
May 2014217
Apr 2014212
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014217
Jan 2014217
Dec 2013217
Nov 2013214
Oct 2013204
Sept 2013250
Aug 2013257
Jul 2013255
Jun 2013248
May 2013255
Apr 2013256
Mar 2013225
Jan 2013216
Dec 2012216
Nov 2012214
Oct 2012225
Sept 2012237
Aug 2012255
Jul 2012255
May 2012214
Apr 2012213
Dec 2011214
Nov 2011196
Oct 2011194
Sept 2011217
Jul 2011213
Jun 2011213
May 2011213
Apr 2011201
Mar 2011196
Jan 2011191
Dec 2010185
Nov 2010163
Oct 2010216
Sept 2010196
Aug 2010198
Jul 2010206
Jun 2010208
May 2010203
Apr 2010196
Mar 2010197
Feb 2010196
Jan 2010194
Dec 2009175
Nov 2009177
Oct 2009196
Sept 2009217
Aug 2009234
Jul 2009235
Jun 2009195
May 2009217
Apr 2009216
Mar 2009220
Feb 2009235
Jan 2009216

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-594-51-retail-kg.