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Sorghum in Konni

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 16% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

114–201

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

113–210

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 114 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 113 and 210 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Konni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 114 and 201 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 113 and 210 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 160–213 181 152–225 278 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 122–198 149 108–217 213 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 114–201 143 104–256 205 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 112–206 141 107–307 190 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 113–210 147 109–318 206 –
Price history (189 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026180
Aug 2026199
Jul 2026199
Jun 2026198
May 2026188
Apr 2026167
Mar 2026150
Feb 2026160
Jan 2026159
Dec 2025159
Nov 2025159
Oct 2025188
Sept 2025200
Aug 2025238
Jul 2025239
Jun 2025239
May 2025258
Apr 2025224
Mar 2025213
Feb 2025217
Jan 2025209
Dec 2024204
Nov 2024223
Oct 2024229
Sept 2024355
Aug 2024372
Jul 2024399
Jun 2024359
May 2024359
Apr 2024322
Mar 2024298
Feb 2024266
Jan 2024219
Dec 2023219
Nov 2023200
Oct 2023279
Sept 2023369
Aug 2023340
Jul 2023303
Jun 2023261
May 2023242
Apr 2023237
Mar 2023238
Feb 2023221
Jan 2023198
Dec 2022197
Nov 2022287
Oct 2022239
Sept 2022260
Aug 2022273
Jul 2022261
Jun 2022260
May 2022269
Apr 2022260
Mar 2022278
Feb 2022277
Jan 2022243
Dec 2021218
Nov 2021217
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021293
Aug 2021320
Jul 2021292
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021248
Mar 2021241
Feb 2021232
Jan 2021196
Oct 2020140
May 2020200
Mar 2020191
Feb 2020162
Jan 2020158
Dec 2019125
Nov 2019136
Oct 2019166
Sept 2019179
Jul 2019151
Jun 2019154
Apr 2019142
Mar 2019141
Feb 2019143
Jan 2019143
Dec 2018122
Nov 2018140
Oct 2018160
Sept 2018200
Aug 2018222
Jul 2018222
Jun 2018220
May 2018220
Apr 2018216
Mar 2018201
Feb 2018182
Jan 2018182
Dec 2017180
Nov 2017189
Oct 2017181
Sept 2017282
Aug 2017281
Jul 2017261
Jun 2017274
May 2017281
Apr 2017281
Mar 2017240
Feb 2017202
Jan 2017180
Nov 2016162
Oct 2016162
Sept 2016197
Aug 2016202
Jul 2016182
Jun 2016186
May 2016165
Feb 2016159
Jan 2016121
Dec 2015112
Jul 2015148
Jun 2015136
May 2015140
Apr 2015141
Mar 2015130
Feb 2015128
Jan 2015120
Nov 2014125
Oct 2014119
Sept 2014187
Aug 2014201
Jul 2014221
Jun 2014201
May 2014202
Apr 2014201
Mar 2014200
Feb 2014200
Jan 2014205
Dec 2013202
Nov 2013200
Oct 2013200
Sept 2013280
Aug 2013300
Jul 2013301
Jun 2013261
May 2013200
Apr 2013199
Mar 2013170
Jan 2013159
Dec 2012159
Nov 2012159
Oct 2012158
Sept 2012213
Aug 2012239
Jul 2012229
May 2012160
Apr 2012160
Dec 2011159
Nov 2011160
Oct 2011140
Sept 2011120
Jul 2011192
Jun 2011189
May 2011189
Apr 2011169
Mar 2011159
Jan 2011139
Dec 2010128
Nov 201098
Oct 2010100
Sept 2010140
Aug 2010218
Jul 2010200
Jun 2010187
May 2010179
Apr 2010179
Mar 2010180
Feb 2010180
Jan 2010173
Dec 2009168
Nov 2009170
Oct 2009171
Sept 2009184
Aug 2009195
Jul 2009191
Jun 2009163
May 2009170
Apr 2009165
Mar 2009165
Feb 2009174
Jan 2009150

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-594-65-retail-kg.