Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Millet in Konni

Tahoua, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 17% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 11% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

154–233

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

148–243

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 154 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 243 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Konni: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 154 and 233 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 148 and 243 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 184–234 202 165–242 270 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 154–222 180 138–229 225 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 154–233 182 134–241 235 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 153–239 181 136–284 238 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 148–243 185 121–284 244 –
Price history (173 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026199
Aug 2026225
Jul 2026239
Jun 2026236
May 2026218
Apr 2026198
Mar 2026193
Feb 2026182
Dec 2025196
Nov 2025191
Oct 2025190
Sept 2025215
Aug 2025249
Jul 2025258
Jun 2025257
May 2025260
Apr 2025267
Mar 2025272
Jan 2025270
Dec 2024254
Nov 2024255
Oct 2024246
Sept 2024305
Aug 2024371
Jul 2024399
Jun 2024352
May 2024318
Apr 2024311
Mar 2024281
Feb 2024276
Jan 2024264
Dec 2023256
Nov 2023257
Oct 2023257
Sept 2023332
Aug 2023337
Jul 2023311
Jun 2023267
May 2023257
Apr 2023257
Mar 2023257
Feb 2023252
Dec 2022235
Nov 2022256
Oct 2022238
Sept 2022277
Aug 2022309
Jul 2022299
Jun 2022299
May 2022298
Apr 2022297
Mar 2022296
Feb 2022296
Dec 2021255
Nov 2021256
Oct 2021244
Sept 2021276
Aug 2021300
Jul 2021279
Jun 2021263
May 2021260
Apr 2021260
Mar 2021259
Oct 2020200
May 2020219
Mar 2020204
Feb 2020200
Jan 2020184
Dec 2019176
Nov 2019177
Oct 2019163
Sept 2019180
Aug 2019167
Jun 2019142
Apr 2019181
Mar 2019181
Feb 2019183
Jan 2019182
Dec 2018181
Nov 2018180
Oct 2018160
Sept 2018199
Aug 2018261
Jul 2018261
Jun 2018261
May 2018248
Apr 2018239
Mar 2018239
Jan 2018220
Dec 2017219
Nov 2017201
Oct 2017201
Sept 2017262
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017300
May 2017300
Apr 2017289
Mar 2017239
Nov 2016180
Oct 2016181
Sept 2016210
Aug 2016221
Jul 2016222
Jun 2016226
May 2016202
Mar 2016178
Dec 2015162
Jul 2015177
Jun 2015180
May 2015180
Apr 2015160
Mar 2015164
Jan 2015160
Nov 2014166
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014186
Aug 2014214
Jul 2014255
Jun 2014240
May 2014240
Apr 2014253
Mar 2014240
Jan 2014239
Dec 2013234
Nov 2013262
Oct 2013216
Sept 2013270
Aug 2013300
Jul 2013300
Jun 2013273
May 2013250
Apr 2013285
Mar 2013250
Dec 2012210
Nov 2012199
Oct 2012199
Sept 2012253
Aug 2012280
Jul 2012270
May 2012257
Apr 2012258
Dec 2011219
Nov 2011204
Oct 2011179
Sept 2011160
Jul 2011180
Jun 2011180
May 2011180
Apr 2011173
Mar 2011170
Dec 2010150
Nov 2010136
Oct 2010140
Sept 2010164
Aug 2010228
Jul 2010220
May 2010199
Apr 2010199
Mar 2010198
Feb 2010198
Dec 2009174
Nov 2009180
Oct 2009184
Sept 2009199
Aug 2009218
Jul 2009203
Jun 2009179
May 2009180
Apr 2009180
Mar 2009180
Feb 2009180
Jan 2009170

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-594-73-retail-kg.