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Maize in Koundoumaoua

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 39% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 6% below the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

130–206

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

121–218

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Koundoumaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 153–199 178 145–206 298 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 136–201 164 117–207 265 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 130–206 158 116–219 265 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 128–212 161 110–251 269 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 121–218 164 100–284 272 –
Price history (164 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026212
Aug 2026187
Jul 2026203
Jun 2026220
May 2026190
Apr 2026178
Mar 2026184
Feb 2026174
Jan 2026161
Dec 2025178
Nov 2025204
Oct 2025198
Sept 2025214
Aug 2025251
Jul 2025253
Jun 2025275
May 2025300
Apr 2025294
Mar 2025290
Feb 2025267
Jan 2025303
Dec 2024288
Nov 2024291
Oct 2024307
Sept 2024370
Aug 2024441
Jul 2024470
Jun 2024457
May 2024407
Apr 2024367
Mar 2024349
Feb 2024335
Jan 2024303
Dec 2023314
Nov 2023329
Oct 2023311
Sept 2023352
Aug 2023398
Jul 2023350
Jun 2023297
May 2023290
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023273
Feb 2023265
Jan 2023249
Dec 2022310
Oct 2022228
Sept 2022258
Aug 2022256
Jul 2022281
Jun 2022284
May 2022280
Apr 2022281
Mar 2022262
Feb 2022290
Jan 2022278
Dec 2021234
Nov 2021228
Oct 2021244
Sept 2021307
Aug 2021366
Jul 2021321
Jun 2021265
May 2021265
Apr 2021266
Feb 2021255
Jan 2021245
Dec 2020211
Nov 2020196
Oct 2020242
Sept 2020244
Aug 2020238
Jul 2020236
Jun 2020217
May 2020222
Apr 2020207
Mar 2020183
Feb 2020181
Jan 2020185
Dec 2019178
Nov 2019181
Oct 2019171
Sept 2019167
Aug 2019161
Jul 2019195
Jun 2019185
May 2019192
Apr 2019190
Mar 2019190
Feb 2019189
Jan 2019189
Dec 2018188
Oct 2018150
Sept 2018184
Aug 2018204
Jul 2018204
Jun 2018208
May 2018207
Apr 2018206
Mar 2018189
Feb 2018196
Jan 2018192
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017184
Oct 2017204
Sept 2017235
Aug 2017262
Jul 2017251
Jun 2017251
May 2017250
Apr 2017249
Mar 2017228
Feb 2017226
Jun 2016208
May 2016208
Oct 2015177
Sept 2015180
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015182
Jun 2015183
May 2015182
Apr 2015183
Mar 2015155
Feb 2015164
Jan 2015165
Nov 2014187
Oct 2014186
Sept 2014186
Aug 2014201
Jul 2014202
Jun 2014217
May 2014217
Apr 2014220
Mar 2014214
Feb 2014219
Jan 2014221
Dec 2013205
Nov 2013201
Oct 2013230
Sept 2013214
Aug 2013251
Jul 2013270
Jun 2013293
May 2013263
Apr 2013247
Mar 2013237
Jan 2013226
Sept 2012205
Aug 2012263
Jul 2012270
May 2012228
Apr 2012225
Dec 2011200
Jun 2011212
Sept 2010174
Aug 2010202
Jul 2010213
Jun 2010242
May 2010222
Apr 2010234
Mar 2010221
Feb 2010215
Jan 2010232
Dec 2009229

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-596-51-retail-kg.