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Rice (imported) in Koundoumaoua

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

415–547

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

404–560

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 415 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 404 and 560 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koundoumaoua: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 415 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 404 and 560 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 450–523 494 429–549 575 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 436–529 490 392–593 559 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 415–547 481 379–638 577 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 410–551 480 384–666 554 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 404–560 477 368–690 554 –
Price history (172 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026550
Aug 2026502
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026473
Apr 2026422
Mar 2026413
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025471
Nov 2025510
Oct 2025491
Sept 2025500
Jul 2025514
Jun 2025514
May 2025550
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025600
Feb 2025657
Jan 2025650
Dec 2024635
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024602
Sept 2024660
Aug 2024650
Jul 2024674
Jun 2024645
May 2024698
Apr 2024750
Mar 2024750
Feb 2024725
Jan 2024525
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023650
Aug 2023591
Jun 2023500
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Jul 2022500
Jun 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Jul 2021445
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019429
Jun 2019500
May 2019500
Apr 2019500
Mar 2019500
Feb 2019500
Jan 2019500
Dec 2018500
Oct 2018500
Jul 2018443
Jun 2018500
May 2018500
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018500
Feb 2018500
Jan 2018500
Dec 2017500
Nov 2017500
Oct 2017500
Aug 2017500
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017450
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Nov 2016500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jul 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012540
Apr 2012525
Dec 2011550
Nov 2011500
Oct 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011488
Dec 2010488
Aug 2010500
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010488
May 2010488
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010500
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009550
Nov 2009550
Sept 2009500
Jul 2009550
Jun 2009550
May 2009550
Apr 2009517
Mar 2009500
Feb 2009500
Jan 2009500

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-596-64-retail-kg.