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Maize in Magaria

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 13% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 8% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

118–195

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

112–204

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 118 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 112 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Magaria: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 118 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 112 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 146–189 168 134–214 271 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 124–187 147 114–198 233 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 118–195 145 102–229 236 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 112–198 141 95.6–243 227 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 112–204 146 94.7–270 235 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026173
Aug 2026173
Jul 2026193
Jun 2026192
May 2026183
Apr 2026154
Mar 2026154
Feb 2026149
Jan 2026137
Dec 2025154
Nov 2025171
Oct 2025162
Sept 2025192
Aug 2025200
Jul 2025233
Jun 2025250
May 2025250
Apr 2025260
Mar 2025269
Feb 2025278
Jan 2025293
Dec 2024272
Nov 2024284
Oct 2024260
Sept 2024359
Aug 2024389
Jul 2024412
Jun 2024389
May 2024350
Apr 2024335
Mar 2024296
Feb 2024278
Jan 2024296
Dec 2023280
Nov 2023280
Oct 2023272
Sept 2023332
Aug 2023392
Jul 2023341
Jun 2023282
May 2023265
Apr 2023251
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023254
Jan 2023240
Dec 2022233
Nov 2022281
Oct 2022233
Sept 2022229
Aug 2022231
Jul 2022255
Jun 2022256
May 2022257
Apr 2022245
Mar 2022252
Feb 2022278
Jan 2022276
Dec 2021235
Nov 2021205
Oct 2021231
Sept 2021296
Aug 2021303
Jul 2021301
Jun 2021264
May 2021264
Apr 2021257
Feb 2021257
Jan 2021231
Dec 2020207
Nov 2020198
Oct 2020232
Sept 2020262
Aug 2020257
Jul 2020247
Jun 2020232
May 2020217
Apr 2020205
Mar 2020198
Feb 2020195
Jan 2020178
Dec 2019176
Nov 2019175
Oct 2019178
Sept 2019177
Aug 2019179
Jul 2019174
Jun 2019170
May 2019180
Apr 2019190
Mar 2019190
Feb 2019180
Jan 2019181
Dec 2018182
Oct 2018198
Sept 2018205
Aug 2018205
Jul 2018206
Jun 2018220
May 2018206
Apr 2018197
Mar 2018185
Feb 2018185
Jan 2018182
Dec 2017182
Nov 2017198
Oct 2017192
Sept 2017231
Aug 2017269
Jul 2017269
Jun 2017277
May 2017261
Apr 2017257
Mar 2017217
Feb 2017214
Jan 2017198
Nov 2016198
Oct 2016198
Sept 2016257
Aug 2016237
Jul 2016213
Jun 2016192
May 2016192
Apr 2016194
Mar 2016193
Feb 2016173
Jan 2016171
Dec 2015171
Oct 2015198
Sept 2015180
Aug 2015157
Jul 2015159
Jun 2015176
May 2015179
Apr 2015165
Mar 2015160
Feb 2015160
Jan 2015166
Nov 2014180
Oct 2014180
Sept 2014200
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014185
Apr 2014185
Mar 2014205
Feb 2014205
Jan 2014218
Dec 2013216
Nov 2013242
Oct 2013241
Sept 2013253
Aug 2013257
Jul 2013257
Jun 2013277
May 2013256
Apr 2013251
Mar 2013245
Jan 2013218
Dec 2012218
Nov 2012218
Oct 2012233
Sept 2012262
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012245
May 2012222
Apr 2012222
Dec 2011199
Nov 2011184
Oct 2011192
Sept 2011223
Jul 2011207
Jun 2011207
May 2011206
Apr 2011197
Mar 2011185
Feb 2011189
Jan 2011195
Dec 2010188
Nov 2010185
Oct 2010168
Sept 2010177
Aug 2010223
Jul 2010275
Jun 2010229
May 2010218
Apr 2010205
Mar 2010202
Feb 2010204
Jan 2010205
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009186
Oct 2009184
Sept 2009206
Aug 2009224
Jul 2009237
Jun 2009226
May 2009207
Apr 2009220
Mar 2009226
Feb 2009225
Jan 2009225

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-598-51-retail-kg.