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Rice (imported) in Magaria

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 7% below the national median of 52 markets (usually 4% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

422–514

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

407–534

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 422 and 514 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 407 and 534 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Magaria: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 422 and 514 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 407 and 534 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 448–498 469 421–520 579 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 434–501 468 404–566 584 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 422–514 467 401–603 595 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 412–521 467 398–643 562 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 407–534 465 373–652 572 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026466
Aug 2026466
Jul 2026470
Jun 2026466
May 2026466
Apr 2026466
Mar 2026466
Feb 2026466
Jan 2026466
Dec 2025487
Nov 2025517
Oct 2025517
Sept 2025517
Aug 2025525
Jul 2025552
Jun 2025552
May 2025572
Apr 2025603
Mar 2025591
Feb 2025638
Jan 2025650
Dec 2024647
Nov 2024675
Oct 2024705
Sept 2024700
Aug 2024721
Jul 2024743
Jun 2024700
May 2024629
Apr 2024643
Mar 2024625
Feb 2024643
Jan 2024647
Dec 2023658
Nov 2023621
Oct 2023607
Sept 2023571
Aug 2023571
Jul 2023446
Jun 2023446
May 2023446
Apr 2023446
Mar 2023446
Feb 2023455
Jan 2023464
Dec 2022451
Nov 2022550
Oct 2022442
Sept 2022446
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022443
Jun 2022444
May 2022446
Apr 2022460
Mar 2022446
Feb 2022442
Jan 2022436
Dec 2021434
Nov 2021453
Oct 2021446
Sept 2021431
Aug 2021452
Jul 2021443
Jun 2021435
May 2021435
Apr 2021442
Mar 2021519
Feb 2021459
Jan 2021462
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020469
Oct 2020464
Sept 2020467
Aug 2020464
Jul 2020469
Jun 2020465
May 2020451
Apr 2020431
Mar 2020431
Feb 2020431
Jan 2020431
Dec 2019414
Nov 2019414
Oct 2019428
Sept 2019416
Aug 2019500
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019411
May 2019411
Apr 2019428
Mar 2019407
Feb 2019410
Jan 2019412
Dec 2018429
Nov 2018424
Oct 2018424
Sept 2018427
Aug 2018427
Jul 2018427
Jun 2018454
May 2018431
Apr 2018476
Mar 2018431
Feb 2018431
Jan 2018431
Dec 2017431
Nov 2017424
Oct 2017421
Sept 2017427
Aug 2017427
Jul 2017427
Jun 2017428
May 2017439
Apr 2017428
Mar 2017428
Feb 2017424
Jan 2017424
Nov 2016475
Oct 2016475
Sept 2016479
Aug 2016479
Jul 2016483
Jun 2016512
May 2016512
Apr 2016508
Mar 2016488
Feb 2016478
Jan 2016478
Dec 2015478
Oct 2015533
Sept 2015483
Aug 2015446
Jul 2015480
Jun 2015482
May 2015519
Apr 2015479
Mar 2015483
Feb 2015511
Jan 2015526
Nov 2014512
Oct 2014512
Sept 2014512
Aug 2014509
Jul 2014508
Jun 2014508
May 2014508
Apr 2014508
Mar 2014514
Feb 2014514
Jan 2014515
Dec 2013514
Nov 2013505
Oct 2013508
Sept 2013491
Aug 2013517
Jul 2013515
Jun 2013497
May 2013510
Apr 2013512
Mar 2013505
Jan 2013508
Dec 2012508
Nov 2012510
Oct 2012511
Sept 2012508
Aug 2012514
Jul 2012503
May 2012514
Apr 2012514
Dec 2011514
Nov 2011496
Oct 2011488
Sept 2011471
Jul 2011514
Jun 2011520
May 2011521
Apr 2011514
Mar 2011514
Jan 2011513
Dec 2010427
Nov 2010428
Oct 2010431
Sept 2010430
Aug 2010428
Jul 2010436
Jun 2010443
May 2010436
Apr 2010437
Mar 2010457
Feb 2010442
Jan 2010429
Dec 2009430
Nov 2009428
Oct 2009428
Sept 2009478
Aug 2009547
Jun 2009512
May 2009512
Apr 2009513
Mar 2009514
Feb 2009513
Jan 2009519

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-598-64-retail-kg.