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Sorghum in Magaria

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 22% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 13% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

124–199

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

121–208

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 124 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 208 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Magaria: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 124 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 121 and 208 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 154–202 177 148–225 284 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 136–201 164 125–240 255 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 124–199 149 114–277 223 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 116–198 145 102–314 207 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 121–208 150 114–360 218 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026168
Aug 2026185
Jul 2026185
Jun 2026185
May 2026167
Apr 2026150
Mar 2026148
Feb 2026144
Jan 2026140
Dec 2025148
Nov 2025163
Oct 2025181
Sept 2025202
Aug 2025219
Jul 2025269
Jun 2025250
May 2025246
Apr 2025238
Mar 2025241
Feb 2025253
Jan 2025270
Dec 2024227
Oct 2024385
Sept 2024433
Aug 2024385
Jul 2024394
Jun 2024377
May 2024325
Apr 2024307
Mar 2024268
Feb 2024264
Jan 2024267
Dec 2023250
Nov 2023268
Oct 2023286
Sept 2023324
Aug 2023340
Jul 2023310
Jun 2023280
May 2023250
Apr 2023224
Mar 2023206
Feb 2023221
Jan 2023208
Dec 2022176
Nov 2022272
Oct 2022210
Sept 2022224
Aug 2022236
Jul 2022261
Jun 2022251
May 2022238
Apr 2022248
Mar 2022247
Feb 2022237
Jan 2022226
Dec 2021211
Nov 2021231
Oct 2021270
Sept 2021289
Aug 2021292
Jul 2021287
Jun 2021235
May 2021235
Apr 2021223
Mar 2021268
Feb 2021209
Jan 2021216
Dec 2020213
Nov 2020180
Oct 2020264
Sept 2020272
Aug 2020262
Jul 2020246
Jun 2020207
May 2020184
Apr 2020187
Mar 2020174
Feb 2020190
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019142
Nov 2019149
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019159
Aug 2019163
Jul 2019156
Jun 2019170
May 2019179
Apr 2019180
Mar 2019183
Feb 2019158
Jan 2019159
Dec 2018162
Nov 2018178
Oct 2018195
Sept 2018234
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018204
Jun 2018207
May 2018204
Apr 2018204
Mar 2018185
Feb 2018180
Jan 2018176
Dec 2017176
Nov 2017214
Oct 2017196
Sept 2017216
Aug 2017260
Jul 2017262
Jun 2017225
May 2017230
Apr 2017217
Mar 2017197
Feb 2017208
Jan 2017173
Nov 2016155
Sept 2016263
Aug 2016253
Jul 2016214
Jun 2016167
May 2016175
Apr 2016170
Mar 2016173
Feb 2016150
Jan 2016135
Dec 2015135
Oct 2015168
Sept 2015168
Aug 2015151
Jul 2015146
Jun 2015161
May 2015165
Apr 2015159
Mar 2015142
Feb 2015149
Jan 2015139
Nov 2014177
Oct 2014175
Sept 2014197
Aug 2014204
Jul 2014203
Jun 2014199
May 2014182
Apr 2014182
Mar 2014176
Feb 2014180
Jan 2014189
Dec 2013180
Nov 2013196
Oct 2013258
Sept 2013273
Aug 2013268
Jul 2013275
Jun 2013266
May 2013244
Apr 2013236
Mar 2013224
Jan 2013207
Dec 2012183
Nov 2012184
Oct 2012193
Sept 2012213
Aug 2012241
Jul 2012250
May 2012163
Apr 2012219
Dec 2011166
Nov 2011146
Oct 2011148
Sept 2011131
Jul 2011166
Jun 2011156
May 2011174
Apr 2011171
Mar 2011161
Feb 2011153
Jan 2011145
Dec 2010143
Nov 2010142
Oct 2010145
Sept 2010171
Aug 2010221
Jul 2010218
Jun 2010214
May 2010202
Apr 2010176
Mar 2010174
Feb 2010161
Jan 2010162
Dec 2009153
Nov 2009146
Oct 2009158
Sept 2009149
Aug 2009192
Jul 2009181
Jun 2009152
May 2009137
Apr 2009154
Mar 2009158
Feb 2009159
Jan 2009154

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-598-65-retail-kg.