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Millet in Magaria

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 29% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 27% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 15% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

138–214

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

127–221

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 221 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Magaria: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 29% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 214 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 221 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 156–206 174 137–215 245 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 126–198 151 121–208 203 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 138–214 160 124–227 229 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 134–217 158 121–252 227 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 127–221 163 102–223 238 –
Price history (203 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026187
Aug 2026198
Jul 2026220
Jun 2026215
May 2026205
Apr 2026178
Mar 2026175
Feb 2026161
Jan 2026153
Dec 2025163
Nov 2025180
Oct 2025160
Sept 2025190
Aug 2025240
Jul 2025255
Jun 2025250
May 2025241
Apr 2025260
Mar 2025259
Feb 2025273
Jan 2025293
Dec 2024253
Nov 2024260
Oct 2024243
Sept 2024273
Aug 2024357
Jul 2024371
Jun 2024350
May 2024317
Apr 2024311
Mar 2024284
Feb 2024266
Jan 2024257
Dec 2023257
Nov 2023275
Oct 2023241
Sept 2023268
Aug 2023340
Jul 2023296
Jun 2023259
May 2023250
Apr 2023237
Mar 2023236
Feb 2023228
Jan 2023229
Dec 2022209
Nov 2022290
Oct 2022188
Sept 2022235
Aug 2022223
Jul 2022262
Jun 2022249
May 2022239
Apr 2022247
Mar 2022247
Feb 2022248
Jan 2022248
Dec 2021213
Nov 2021191
Oct 2021187
Sept 2021274
Aug 2021281
Jul 2021270
Jun 2021257
May 2021249
Apr 2021238
Mar 2021255
Feb 2021240
Jan 2021228
Dec 2020227
Nov 2020179
Oct 2020174
Sept 2020218
Aug 2020258
Jul 2020226
Jun 2020193
May 2020192
Apr 2020206
Mar 2020183
Feb 2020167
Jan 2020152
Dec 2019144
Nov 2019142
Oct 2019128
Sept 2019135
Aug 2019175
Jul 2019168
Jun 2019159
May 2019189
Apr 2019188
Mar 2019186
Feb 2019169
Jan 2019173
Dec 2018168
Nov 2018165
Oct 2018147
Sept 2018185
Aug 2018204
Jul 2018199
Jun 2018222
May 2018211
Apr 2018199
Mar 2018183
Feb 2018193
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017190
Oct 2017172
Sept 2017181
Aug 2017270
Jul 2017264
Jun 2017278
May 2017244
Apr 2017244
Mar 2017209
Feb 2017202
Jan 2017184
Nov 2016165
Oct 2016147
Sept 2016208
Aug 2016242
Jul 2016201
Jun 2016162
May 2016171
Apr 2016153
Mar 2016142
Feb 2016131
Jan 2016126
Dec 2015119
Oct 2015124
Sept 2015155
Aug 2015151
Jul 2015155
Jun 2015151
May 2015173
Apr 2015159
Mar 2015147
Feb 2015150
Jan 2015131
Nov 2014147
Oct 2014151
Sept 2014188
Aug 2014190
Jul 2014204
Jun 2014194
May 2014207
Apr 2014211
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014216
Jan 2014210
Dec 2013196
Nov 2013213
Oct 2013211
Sept 2013232
Aug 2013288
Jul 2013287
Jun 2013260
May 2013246
Apr 2013265
Mar 2013238
Jan 2013215
Dec 2012191
Nov 2012190
Oct 2012171
Sept 2012180
Aug 2012241
Jul 2012270
May 2012213
Apr 2012225
Dec 2011166
Nov 2011146
Oct 2011137
Sept 2011142
Jul 2011175
Jun 2011174
May 2011195
Apr 2011188
Mar 2011173
Feb 2011167
Jan 2011171
Dec 2010169
Nov 2010151
Oct 2010138
Sept 2010155
Aug 2010236
Jul 2010219
Jun 2010212
May 2010193
Apr 2010188
Mar 2010173
Feb 2010170
Jan 2010164
Dec 2009164
Nov 2009143
Oct 2009131
Sept 2009129
Jul 2009184
Jun 2009162
May 2009145
Apr 2009160
Mar 2009166
Feb 2009179
Jan 2009179

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-598-73-retail-kg.