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Maize in Maine Soroa

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 25% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

163–262

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

155–272

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 163 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 272 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Maine Soroa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 163 and 262 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 272 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 202–270 236 185–293 336 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 174–267 214 160–286 289 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 163–262 198 141–317 266 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 158–268 195 133–348 265 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 155–272 198 129–364 266 –
Price history (173 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026248
Aug 2026249
Jul 2026258
Jun 2026256
May 2026219
Apr 2026188
Mar 2026194
Feb 2026185
Jan 2026187
Dec 2025199
Nov 2025197
Oct 2025200
Sept 2025238
Aug 2025248
Jul 2025260
Jun 2025257
May 2025247
Apr 2025273
Mar 2025297
Feb 2025291
Jan 2025290
Dec 2024265
Nov 2024285
Oct 2024332
Sept 2024439
Aug 2024470
Jul 2024447
Jun 2024422
May 2024353
Apr 2024354
Mar 2024360
Feb 2024335
Jan 2024310
Dec 2023327
Nov 2023336
Oct 2023354
Sept 2023439
Aug 2023435
Jul 2023349
Jun 2023318
May 2023340
Apr 2023308
Mar 2023292
Feb 2023292
Dec 2022293
Nov 2022237
Oct 2022287
Sept 2022298
Aug 2022270
Jul 2022241
Jun 2022248
May 2022282
Apr 2022290
Mar 2022272
Feb 2022260
Jan 2022253
Dec 2021223
Nov 2021242
Jun 2021241
Mar 2021266
Feb 2020220
Jan 2020204
Dec 2019189
Nov 2019239
Oct 2019239
Aug 2019186
Jul 2019213
Jun 2019223
Apr 2019210
Mar 2019185
Jan 2019222
Dec 2018222
Nov 2018222
Oct 2018216
Sept 2018238
Aug 2018238
Jul 2018216
Apr 2018229
Mar 2018229
Feb 2018268
Jan 2018268
Dec 2017264
Nov 2017268
Aug 2017289
Jul 2017280
Jun 2017246
May 2017239
Apr 2017270
Mar 2017259
Feb 2017242
Nov 2016187
Oct 2016267
Sept 2016275
Jul 2016223
Jun 2016210
May 2016126
Feb 2016248
Jan 2016204
Dec 2015255
Oct 2015255
Sept 2015255
Aug 2015255
Jul 2015255
Jun 2015255
May 2015255
Apr 2015255
Mar 2015255
Feb 2015255
Jan 2015255
Nov 2014255
Oct 2014255
Sept 2014255
Aug 2014255
Jul 2014255
Jun 2014255
May 2014255
Apr 2014255
Mar 2014255
Feb 2014255
Jan 2014255
Dec 2013255
Nov 2013255
Oct 2013255
Sept 2013255
Aug 2013255
Jul 2013255
Jun 2013255
May 2013255
Apr 2013255
Mar 2013255
Jan 2013255
Dec 2012274
Nov 2012288
Oct 2012295
Sept 2012312
Aug 2012315
Jul 2012293
May 2012290
Apr 2012283
Dec 2011254
Nov 2011213
Oct 2011205
Sept 2011204
Jul 2011192
Jun 2011194
May 2011195
Apr 2011196
Mar 2011169
Jan 2011175
Dec 2010188
Nov 2010200
Oct 2010213
Sept 2010210
Aug 2010221
Jul 2010249
Jun 2010245
May 2010232
Apr 2010236
Mar 2010215
Feb 2010197
Jan 2010203
Dec 2009187
Nov 2009188
Oct 2009213
Sept 2009230
Aug 2009244
Jul 2009232
Jun 2009200
May 2009192
Apr 2009218
Mar 2009201
Feb 2009210
Jan 2009227

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-600-51-retail-kg.