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Rice (imported) in Maine Soroa

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 6% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

415–578

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

401–597

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 415 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 401 and 597 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Maine Soroa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 415 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 401 and 597 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 474–565 523 431–583 624 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 438–564 509 388–631 601 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 415–578 505 358–643 594 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 404–591 501 338–711 587 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 401–597 501 350–694 592 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026544
Aug 2026528
Jul 2026486
Jun 2026508
May 2026540
Apr 2026451
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026451
Jan 2026455
Dec 2025475
Nov 2025468
Oct 2025502
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025538
Jun 2025560
May 2025586
Apr 2025600
Mar 2025630
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025640
Dec 2024666
Nov 2024628
Oct 2024703
Sept 2024690
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024730
Jun 2024660
May 2024673
Apr 2024712
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024643
Jan 2024659
Dec 2023643
Nov 2023754
Oct 2023704
Sept 2023684
Aug 2023740
Jul 2023593
Jun 2023556
May 2023450
Apr 2023507
Mar 2023556
Feb 2023556
Jan 2023519
Dec 2022537
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022446
Sept 2022495
Aug 2022512
Jul 2022454
Jun 2022466
May 2022519
Apr 2022586
Mar 2022529
Feb 2022504
Jan 2022514
Dec 2021571
Nov 2021444
Oct 2021456
Sept 2021595
Aug 2021619
Jul 2021528
Jun 2021516
May 2021528
Apr 2021510
Mar 2021429
Feb 2021519
Jan 2021523
Dec 2020434
Nov 2020585
Oct 2020504
Sept 2020510
Aug 2020538
Jul 2020462
Jun 2020512
May 2020524
Apr 2020524
Mar 2020514
Feb 2020481
Jan 2020459
Dec 2019453
Nov 2019461
Oct 2019476
Sept 2019436
Aug 2019461
Jul 2019461
Jun 2019545
May 2019454
Apr 2019441
Mar 2019418
Feb 2019410
Jan 2019440
Dec 2018410
Nov 2018410
Oct 2018458
Sept 2018458
Aug 2018548
Jul 2018549
Apr 2018500
Mar 2018520
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018400
Dec 2017412
Nov 2017412
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017450
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Apr 2016450
Mar 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015450
Jul 2015450
Jun 2015450
May 2015450
Apr 2015440
Mar 2015400
Feb 2015350
Jan 2015410
Nov 2014447
Oct 2014519
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014517
Jul 2014493
Jun 2014500
May 2014480
Apr 2014441
Mar 2014441
Feb 2014461
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012514
Jul 2012525
May 2012538
Apr 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011497
Oct 2011497
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010500
Oct 2010467
Sept 2010500
Aug 2010483
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010500
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010500
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010475
Dec 2009475
Nov 2009475
Oct 2009480
Sept 2009475
Aug 2009488
Jul 2009452
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009475
Jan 2009505

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-600-64-retail-kg.