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Sorghum in Maine Soroa

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 14% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

126–218

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

118–218

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 126 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 118 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Maine Soroa: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 126 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 118 and 218 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 153–215 179 148–230 257 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 131–215 157 111–226 227 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 126–218 153 108–254 230 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 119–217 146 110–306 214 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 118–218 151 113–302 213 –
Price history (195 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026205
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026204
Jun 2026190
May 2026183
Apr 2026152
Mar 2026151
Feb 2026139
Jan 2026121
Dec 2025135
Nov 2025149
Oct 2025149
Sept 2025154
Aug 2025188
Jul 2025229
Jun 2025233
May 2025245
Apr 2025225
Mar 2025219
Feb 2025228
Jan 2025237
Dec 2024248
Nov 2024264
Oct 2024281
Sept 2024347
Aug 2024386
Jul 2024431
Jun 2024430
May 2024360
Apr 2024360
Mar 2024341
Feb 2024306
Jan 2024278
Dec 2023251
Nov 2023304
Oct 2023364
Sept 2023370
Aug 2023405
Jul 2023303
Jun 2023257
May 2023279
Apr 2023268
Mar 2023249
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023255
Dec 2022256
Nov 2022246
Oct 2022221
Sept 2022269
Aug 2022317
Jul 2022317
Jun 2022276
May 2022229
Apr 2022260
Mar 2022242
Feb 2022217
Jan 2022250
Dec 2021211
Nov 2021204
Oct 2021258
Sept 2021250
Aug 2021250
Jul 2021253
Jun 2021222
May 2021245
Apr 2021245
Feb 2021251
Jan 2021252
Nov 2020375
Oct 2020267
Sept 2020291
Aug 2020311
Jul 2020262
Jun 2020237
May 2020231
Apr 2020217
Mar 2020187
Feb 2020210
Jan 2020186
Dec 2019191
Nov 2019183
Oct 2019183
Sept 2019201
Aug 2019199
Jul 2019196
Jun 2019217
May 2019218
Apr 2019216
Mar 2019203
Feb 2019216
Jan 2019198
Dec 2018222
Nov 2018222
Oct 2018216
Sept 2018259
Aug 2018259
Jul 2018194
Apr 2018198
Mar 2018197
Feb 2018280
Jan 2018187
Dec 2017224
Nov 2017287
Aug 2017288
Jul 2017288
Jun 2017264
May 2017260
Apr 2017239
Mar 2017220
Feb 2017235
Nov 2016156
Oct 2016172
Sept 2016237
Aug 2016300
Jul 2016202
Jun 2016196
May 2016174
Apr 2016162
Mar 2016161
Feb 2016158
Jan 2016230
Dec 2015242
Oct 2015230
Sept 2015181
Aug 2015194
Jul 2015184
Jun 2015192
May 2015186
Apr 2015175
Mar 2015208
Feb 2015170
Jan 2015191
Nov 2014232
Oct 2014257
Sept 2014259
Aug 2014231
Jul 2014258
Jun 2014263
May 2014246
Apr 2014236
Mar 2014238
Feb 2014250
Jan 2014217
Dec 2013252
Nov 2013269
Oct 2013278
Sept 2013298
Aug 2013294
Jul 2013280
Jun 2013280
May 2013261
Apr 2013231
Mar 2013221
Jan 2013225
Dec 2012185
Nov 2012260
Oct 2012268
Sept 2012296
Aug 2012305
Jul 2012295
May 2012221
Apr 2012221
Dec 2011235
Nov 2011210
Oct 2011198
Sept 2011188
Jul 2011163
Jun 2011163
May 2011171
Apr 2011150
Mar 2011146
Jan 2011157
Nov 2010165
Oct 2010184
Sept 2010188
Aug 2010213
Jul 2010233
Jun 2010229
May 2010214
Apr 2010205
Mar 2010197
Feb 2010180
Jan 2010178
Dec 2009171
Nov 2009174
Oct 2009182
Sept 2009201
Aug 2009199
Jul 2009178
Jun 2009164
May 2009171
Apr 2009166
Mar 2009172
Feb 2009162
Jan 2009189

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-600-65-retail-kg.