Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Rice (imported) in Mangaize

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 16% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 12% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

487–629

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

461–650

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 487 and 629 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 461 and 650 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Mangaize: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 487 and 629 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 461 and 650 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02004006008001,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 538–606 575 480–645 690 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 496–616 569 431–668 664 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 487–629 562 453–693 666 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 470–640 562 414–751 665 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 461–650 568 383–789 682 –
Price history (184 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026571
Aug 2026578
Jul 2026579
Jun 2026600
May 2026588
Apr 2026574
Mar 2026515
Feb 2026515
Jan 2026588
Dec 2025561
Nov 2025533
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025564
Jul 2025692
Jun 2025664
May 2025700
Apr 2025715
Mar 2025694
Feb 2025690
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024676
Nov 2024695
Oct 2024676
Sept 2024792
Aug 2024900
Jul 2024875
Jun 2024842
May 2024693
Apr 2024746
Mar 2024721
Feb 2024746
Jan 2024738
Dec 2023685
Nov 2023708
Oct 2023604
Sept 2023672
Aug 2023734
Jul 2023539
Jun 2023522
May 2023522
Apr 2023519
Mar 2023515
Feb 2023519
Jan 2023522
Dec 2022522
Nov 2022522
Oct 2022522
Sept 2022522
Aug 2022522
Jul 2022515
Jun 2022486
May 2022486
Apr 2022515
Mar 2022515
Feb 2022510
Jan 2022479
Dec 2021478
Nov 2021476
Oct 2021441
Sept 2021441
Aug 2021448
Jul 2021441
Jun 2021443
May 2021443
Apr 2021444
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021467
Jan 2021486
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020479
Oct 2020479
Sept 2020501
Aug 2020519
Jul 2020515
Jun 2020443
May 2020448
Apr 2020462
Mar 2020449
Feb 2020411
Jan 2020422
Dec 2019421
Nov 2019417
Oct 2019448
Sept 2019448
Aug 2019448
Jul 2019300
Jun 2019448
May 2019448
Apr 2019485
Mar 2019448
Feb 2019448
Jan 2019448
Dec 2018448
Nov 2018448
Oct 2018448
Sept 2018448
Aug 2018448
Jul 2018448
Jun 2018441
May 2018455
Apr 2018454
Mar 2018448
Feb 2018429
Jan 2018433
Dec 2017462
Nov 2017412
Oct 2017476
Sept 2017476
Aug 2017441
Jul 2017441
May 2017448
Mar 2017429
Feb 2017448
Jan 2017429
Nov 2016426
Oct 2016462
Sept 2016448
Aug 2016462
Jul 2016462
Jun 2016448
May 2016448
Mar 2016448
Feb 2016448
Jan 2016507
Dec 2015448
Jun 2015441
May 2015448
Apr 2015447
Feb 2015441
Sept 2014448
Aug 2014448
Jul 2014448
Jun 2014448
May 2014448
Apr 2014448
Mar 2014448
Feb 2014452
Jan 2014462
Dec 2013462
Nov 2013448
Aug 2013441
Jul 2013444
May 2013441
Apr 2013441
Mar 2013441
Jan 2013441
Dec 2012441
Nov 2012478
Oct 2012545
Aug 2012474
Jul 2012486
May 2012479
Apr 2012485
Dec 2011478
Nov 2011522
Jul 2011522
Jun 2011486
May 2011493
Mar 2011478
Jan 2011490
Dec 2010485
Nov 2010423
Oct 2010448
Sept 2010448
Aug 2010448
Jul 2010448
Jun 2010441
May 2010441
Apr 2010441
Mar 2010448
Jan 2010448
Dec 2009448
Nov 2009446
Oct 2009481
Sept 2009478
Aug 2009434
Jul 2009445
Jun 2009479
May 2009486
Apr 2009439
Mar 2009442
Feb 2009478
Jan 2009478

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-601-64-retail-kg.