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Millet in Mangaize

Tillaberi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 7% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 17% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

213–318

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

197–330

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 213 and 318 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 197 and 330 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Mangaize: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 213 and 318 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 197 and 330 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 260–322 284 229–340 378 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 227–313 263 182–331 344 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 213–318 258 178–319 329 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 208–326 259 163–362 331 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 197–330 260 160–384 330 –
Price history (186 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026278
Aug 2026292
Jul 2026309
Jun 2026346
May 2026313
Apr 2026269
Mar 2026277
Feb 2026284
Jan 2026280
Dec 2025300
Nov 2025324
Oct 2025287
Sept 2025321
Aug 2025339
Jul 2025359
Jun 2025354
May 2025325
Apr 2025334
Mar 2025345
Feb 2025329
Jan 2025306
Dec 2024319
Nov 2024341
Oct 2024379
Sept 2024492
Aug 2024552
Jul 2024494
Jun 2024464
May 2024406
Apr 2024385
Mar 2024355
Feb 2024347
Jan 2024330
Dec 2023320
Nov 2023350
Oct 2023340
Sept 2023400
Aug 2023401
Jul 2023378
Jun 2023383
May 2023327
Apr 2023326
Mar 2023315
Feb 2023296
Jan 2023288
Dec 2022285
Nov 2022264
Oct 2022297
Sept 2022336
Aug 2022338
Jul 2022379
Jun 2022386
May 2022343
Apr 2022309
Mar 2022309
Feb 2022316
Jan 2022297
Dec 2021292
Nov 2021325
Oct 2021285
Sept 2021306
Aug 2021328
Jul 2021314
Jun 2021309
May 2021304
Apr 2021285
Mar 2021267
Feb 2021268
Jan 2021266
Dec 2020215
Nov 2020221
Oct 2020292
Sept 2020290
Aug 2020298
Jul 2020289
Jun 2020259
May 2020265
Apr 2020256
Mar 2020255
Feb 2020268
Jan 2020246
Dec 2019272
Nov 2019247
Oct 2019238
Sept 2019243
Aug 2019243
Jul 2019301
Jun 2019242
May 2019247
Apr 2019266
Mar 2019262
Feb 2019263
Jan 2019309
Dec 2018305
Nov 2018269
Oct 2018285
Sept 2018306
Aug 2018315
Jul 2018313
Jun 2018348
May 2018317
Apr 2018295
Mar 2018300
Feb 2018283
Jan 2018296
Dec 2017296
Nov 2017296
Oct 2017296
Sept 2017320
Aug 2017322
Jul 2017319
May 2017289
Mar 2017231
Feb 2017223
Jan 2017226
Nov 2016222
Oct 2016267
Sept 2016286
Aug 2016272
Jul 2016272
Jun 2016303
May 2016303
Mar 2016283
Feb 2016301
Jan 2016310
Dec 2015299
Jun 2015325
May 2015279
Apr 2015308
Feb 2015296
Sept 2014296
Aug 2014297
Jul 2014308
Jun 2014308
May 2014301
Apr 2014308
Mar 2014299
Feb 2014302
Jan 2014308
Dec 2013308
Nov 2013299
Aug 2013308
Jul 2013308
May 2013308
Apr 2013306
Mar 2013262
Jan 2013308
Dec 2012261
Nov 2012222
Oct 2012257
Sept 2012354
Aug 2012335
Jul 2012335
May 2012314
Apr 2012297
Dec 2011292
Nov 2011257
Sept 2011259
Jul 2011226
Jun 2011224
May 2011222
Apr 2011221
Mar 2011214
Jan 2011224
Dec 2010224
Nov 2010214
Oct 2010259
Sept 2010287
Aug 2010293
Jul 2010258
Jun 2010257
Apr 2010269
Mar 2010269
Jan 2010259
Dec 2009264
Nov 2009264
Oct 2009249
Sept 2009292
Aug 2009301
Jul 2009261
Jun 2009236
May 2009260
Apr 2009222
Mar 2009222
Feb 2009221
Jan 2009221

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-601-73-retail-kg.