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Maize in Maradi Commune

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 33% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 10% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

122–198

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

117–207

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 122 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 117 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Maradi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 33% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 122 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 117 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 147–190 168 137–211 271 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 127–190 147 117–208 232 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 122–198 146 102–242 242 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 116–202 142 102–257 228 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 117–207 148 102–264 237 –
Price history (388 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026173
Aug 2026180
Jul 2026186
Jun 2026185
May 2026167
Apr 2026156
Mar 2026158
Feb 2026150
Jan 2026130
Dec 2025145
Nov 2025169
Oct 2025170
Sept 2025199
Aug 2025210
Jul 2025230
Jun 2025247
May 2025246
Apr 2025253
Mar 2025260
Feb 2025270
Jan 2025280
Dec 2024275
Nov 2024270
Oct 2024250
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024395
Jul 2024424
Jun 2024392
May 2024350
Apr 2024344
Mar 2024300
Feb 2024309
Jan 2024294
Dec 2023265
Nov 2023270
Oct 2023281
Sept 2023362
Aug 2023360
Jul 2023355
Jun 2023295
May 2023263
Apr 2023240
Mar 2023240
Feb 2023240
Jan 2023240
Dec 2022235
Nov 2022256
Oct 2022235
Sept 2022239
Aug 2022253
Jul 2022245
Jun 2022260
May 2022260
Apr 2022260
Mar 2022278
Feb 2022260
Jan 2022280
Dec 2021245
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021225
Sept 2021295
Aug 2021320
Jul 2021294
Jun 2021260
May 2021260
Apr 2021253
Mar 2021252
Feb 2021240
Jan 2021230
Dec 2020200
Nov 2020219
Oct 2020222
Sept 2020243
Aug 2020238
Jul 2020222
Jun 2020218
May 2020213
Apr 2020215
Mar 2020180
Feb 2020173
Jan 2020180
Dec 2019180
Nov 2019178
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019178
Aug 2019164
Jul 2019163
Jun 2019172
May 2019180
Apr 2019180
Mar 2019180
Feb 2019170
Jan 2019175
Dec 2018180
Nov 2018176
Oct 2018180
Sept 2018201
Aug 2018220
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018210
May 2018220
Apr 2018200
Mar 2018180
Feb 2018180
Jan 2018195
Dec 2017192
Nov 2017281
Oct 2017200
Sept 2017240
Aug 2017250
Jul 2017233
Jun 2017255
May 2017245
Apr 2017240
Mar 2017202
Feb 2017220
Jan 2017210
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016200
Sept 2016240
Aug 2016240
Jul 2016228
Jun 2016210
May 2016200
Apr 2016190
Mar 2016183
Feb 2016180
Jan 2016180
Dec 2015200
Oct 2015190
Sept 2015210
Aug 2015180
Jul 2015173
Jun 2015180
May 2015180
Apr 2015180
Mar 2015160
Feb 2015162
Jan 2015170
Dec 2014173
Nov 2014190
Oct 2014195
Sept 2014195
Aug 2014200
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014221
May 2014202
Apr 2014200
Mar 2014212
Feb 2014210
Jan 2014208
Dec 2013207
Nov 2013210
Oct 2013215
Sept 2013240
Aug 2013264
Jul 2013247
Jun 2013250
May 2013247
Apr 2013237
Mar 2013250
Jan 2013220
Dec 2012220
Nov 2012220
Oct 2012228
Sept 2012250
Aug 2012260
Jul 2012250
May 2012224
Apr 2012222
Mar 2012205
Feb 2012200
Jan 2012200
Dec 2011200
Nov 2011202
Oct 2011200
Sept 2011212
Aug 2011213
Jul 2011210
Jun 2011210
May 2011220
Apr 2011180
Mar 2011180
Feb 2011180
Jan 2011172
Dec 2010186
Nov 2010170
Oct 2010180
Sept 2010196
Aug 2010225
Jul 2010229
Jun 2010220
May 2010219
Apr 2010207
Mar 2010201
Feb 2010201
Jan 2010200
Dec 2009193
Nov 2009188
Oct 2009177
Sept 2009210
Aug 2009230
Jul 2009230
Jun 2009209
May 2009197
Apr 2009202
Mar 2009206
Feb 2009217
Jan 2009214
Dec 2008222
Nov 2008227
Oct 2008227
Sept 2008251
Aug 2008269
Jul 2008275
Jun 2008249
May 2008223
Apr 2008213
Mar 2008218
Feb 2008208
Jan 2008202
Dec 2007169
Nov 2007174
Oct 2007149
Sept 2007140
Aug 2007138
Jul 2007130
Jun 2007124
May 2007126
Apr 2007127
Mar 2007130
Feb 2007134
Jan 2007133
Dec 2006124
Nov 2006123
Oct 2006125
Sept 2006148
Aug 2006154
Jul 2006154
Jun 2006150
May 2006160
Apr 2006163
Mar 2006155
Feb 2006160
Jan 2006160
Dec 2005155
Nov 2005152
Oct 2005153
Sept 2005212
Aug 2005294
Jul 2005275
Jun 2005252
May 2005223
Apr 2005224
Mar 2005196
Feb 2005180
Jan 2005177
Dec 2004158
Nov 2004150
Oct 2004146
Sept 2004140
Aug 2004138
Jul 2004136
Jun 2004130
May 2004129
Apr 2004128
Mar 2004116
Feb 2004101
Jan 200499
Dec 200399
Nov 2003100
Oct 200398
Sept 2003101
Aug 200398
Jul 2003101
Jun 2003119
May 2003115
Apr 2003126
Mar 2003120
Feb 2003126
Jan 2003126
Dec 2002129
Nov 2002125
Oct 2002152
Sept 2002178
Aug 2002210
Jul 2002222
Jun 2002213
May 2002207
Apr 2002205
Mar 2002170
Feb 2002183
Jan 2002189
Dec 2001163
Nov 2001144
Oct 2001142
Sept 2001182
Aug 2001192
Jul 2001189
Jun 2001181
May 2001180
Apr 2001178
Mar 2001169
Feb 2001153
Jan 2001122
Dec 2000126
Nov 2000129
Oct 2000114
Sept 2000107
Aug 2000109
Jul 2000111
Jun 2000111
May 200099
Apr 2000102
Mar 200097
Feb 2000102
Jan 200086
Dec 199997
Nov 1999104
Oct 1999109
Sept 1999117
Aug 1999108
Jul 1999123
Jun 1999121
May 1999113
Apr 1999123
Mar 1999140
Feb 1999109
Jan 1999118
Dec 1998120
Nov 1998125
Oct 1998112
Sept 1998144
Aug 1998201
Jul 1998199
Jun 1998180
May 1998173
Apr 1998180
Mar 1998156
Feb 1998158
Jan 1998157
Dec 1997148
Nov 1997145
Oct 1997145
Sept 1997145
Aug 1997172
Jul 1997168
Jun 1997161
May 1997165
Apr 1997159
Mar 1997141
Feb 1997131
Jan 1997124
Dec 1996107
Nov 1996114
Oct 1996110
Sept 1996102
Aug 1996109
Jul 1996109
Jun 1996106
May 1996103
Apr 1996111
Mar 199685
Feb 199676
Jan 199676
Dec 199576
Nov 199579
Oct 199585
Sept 1995105
Aug 199596
Jul 1995102
Jun 199589
May 199582
Apr 199582
Mar 199570
Feb 199563
Jan 199563
Dec 199458
Nov 199449
Oct 199453
Aug 199463
Jul 199461
Jun 199460
May 199457
Apr 199455
Mar 199455
Feb 199458
Jan 199444

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-602-51-retail-kg.