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Rice (imported) in Maradi Commune

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

431–533

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

415–547

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 431 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 415 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Maradi Commune: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 431 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 415 and 547 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 455–515 490 441–538 567 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 439–517 488 409–583 573 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 431–533 481 414–611 576 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 415–539 479 387–635 555 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 415–547 475 388–662 555 –
Price history (438 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026480
Jun 2026450
May 2026458
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026488
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025450
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025475
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025500
Apr 2025525
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025575
Jan 2025638
Dec 2024650
Nov 2024650
Oct 2024650
Sept 2024650
Aug 2024700
Jul 2024700
Jun 2024690
May 2024650
Apr 2024650
Mar 2024650
Feb 2024650
Jan 2024638
Dec 2023600
Nov 2023650
Oct 2023650
Sept 2023567
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023463
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022531
Oct 2022475
Sept 2022463
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022488
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022488
Feb 2022475
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021500
Jun 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020481
May 2020488
Apr 2020462
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019425
May 2019433
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019425
Dec 2018425
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018400
Jul 2018400
Jun 2018425
May 2018500
Apr 2018400
Mar 2018400
Feb 2018400
Jan 2018425
Dec 2017439
Nov 2017425
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017400
May 2017430
Apr 2017425
Mar 2017425
Feb 2017450
Jan 2017400
Dec 2016450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015500
Nov 2015500
Oct 2015500
Sept 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015500
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Dec 2014500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014500
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jul 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Feb 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
Sept 2012500
Aug 2012500
Jul 2012500
May 2012500
Apr 2012500
Mar 2012500
Feb 2012500
Jan 2012500
Dec 2011500
Nov 2011471
Oct 2011460
Sept 2011450
Aug 2011475
Jul 2011500
Jun 2011500
May 2011500
Apr 2011500
Mar 2011500
Feb 2011500
Jan 2011500
Dec 2010500
Nov 2010450
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010500
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010500
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010500
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009500
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009512
Mar 2009525
Feb 2009525
Jan 2009525
Dec 2008501
Nov 2008490
Oct 2008454
Sept 2008452
Aug 2008459
Jul 2008441
Jun 2008389
May 2008381
Apr 2008381
Mar 2008398
Feb 2008376
Jan 2008356
Dec 2007347
Nov 2007342
Oct 2007329
Sept 2007324
Aug 2007321
Jul 2007280
Jun 2007325
May 2007326
Apr 2007327
Mar 2007328
Feb 2007331
Jan 2007331
Dec 2006325
Nov 2006325
Oct 2006325
Sept 2006325
Aug 2006325
Jul 2006325
Jun 2006325
May 2006325
Apr 2006350
Mar 2006340
Feb 2006344
Jan 2006350
Dec 2005350
Nov 2005350
Oct 2005350
Sept 2005350
Aug 2005375
Jul 2005333
Jun 2005325
May 2005319
Apr 2005325
Mar 2005325
Feb 2005325
Jan 2005308
Dec 2004313
Nov 2004325
Oct 2004325
Sept 2004319
Aug 2004325
Jul 2004325
Jun 2004300
May 2004300
Apr 2004294
Mar 2004275
Feb 2004275
Jan 2004275
Dec 2003275
Nov 2003275
Oct 2003281
Sept 2003275
Aug 2003275
Jul 2003275
Jun 2003275
May 2003281
Apr 2003283
Mar 2003288
Feb 2003273
Jan 2003275
Dec 2002288
Nov 2002275
Oct 2002288
Sept 2002275
Aug 2002275
Jul 2002275
Jun 2002275
May 2002275
Apr 2002275
Mar 2002275
Feb 2002300
Jan 2002308
Dec 2001300
Nov 2001300
Oct 2001300
Sept 2001300
Aug 2001300
Jul 2001300
Jun 2001300
May 2001300
Apr 2001300
Mar 2001300
Feb 2001300
Jan 2001300
Dec 2000300
Nov 2000300
Oct 2000300
Sept 2000300
Aug 2000300
Jul 2000300
Jun 2000300
May 2000300
Apr 2000300
Mar 2000300
Feb 2000300
Jan 2000300
Dec 1999300
Nov 1999285
Oct 1999300
Sept 1999288
Aug 1999288
Jul 1999300
Jun 1999300
May 1999295
Apr 1999300
Mar 1999300
Feb 1999300
Jan 1999283
Dec 1998300
Nov 1998300
Oct 1998300
Sept 1998313
Aug 1998300
Jul 1998300
Jun 1998313
May 1998325
Apr 1998300
Mar 1998275
Feb 1998275
Jan 1998275
Dec 1997288
Nov 1997300
Oct 1997263
Sept 1997275
Aug 1997275
Jul 1997275
Jun 1997275
May 1997300
Apr 1997300
Mar 1997275
Feb 1997275
Jan 1997285
Dec 1996285
Nov 1996285
Oct 1996285
Sept 1996280
Aug 1996275
Jul 1996280
Jun 1996285
May 1996285
Apr 1996293
Mar 1996300
Feb 1996290
Jan 1996300
Dec 1995300
Nov 1995308
Oct 1995315
Sept 1995308
Aug 1995290
Jul 1995260
Jun 1995258
May 1995255
Apr 1995268
Mar 1995260
Feb 1995260
Jan 1995260
Dec 1994255
Nov 1994250
Oct 1994254
Sept 1994258
Aug 1994263
Jul 1994255
Jun 1994255
May 1994250
Apr 1994257
Mar 1994254
Feb 1994236
Jan 1994202
Dec 1993193
Nov 1993195
Oct 1993192
Sept 1993200
Aug 1993200
Jul 1993200
Jun 1993198
May 1993193
Apr 1993193
Mar 1993194
Feb 1993195
Jan 1993196
Dec 1992197
Nov 1992195
Oct 1992192
Sept 1992194
Aug 1992194
Jul 1992193
Jun 1992197
May 1992198
Apr 1992199
Mar 1992200
Feb 1992200
Jan 1992198
Dec 1991194
Nov 1991195
Oct 1991195
Sept 1991189
Aug 1991194
Jul 1991189
Jun 1991150
May 1991173
Apr 1991200
Mar 1991200
Feb 1991200
Jan 1991200
Dec 1990200
Nov 1990200
Oct 1990200
Sept 1990206
Aug 1990206
Jul 1990209
Jun 1990200
May 1990207
Apr 1990207
Mar 1990205
Feb 1990205
Jan 1990205

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-602-64-retail-kg.