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Maize in Matameye

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 34% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 5% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

131–207

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

122–222

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 131 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 122 and 222 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Matameye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 34% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 131 and 207 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 122 and 222 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 159–203 181 152–234 288 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 142–204 164 120–222 258 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 131–207 154 117–245 241 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 127–216 156 108–288 242 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 122–222 158 95.7–326 247 –
Price history (201 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026179
Aug 2026190
Jul 2026199
Jun 2026198
May 2026204
Apr 2026176
Mar 2026165
Feb 2026164
Jan 2026149
Dec 2025157
Nov 2025177
Oct 2025197
Sept 2025202
Aug 2025213
Jul 2025265
Jun 2025279
May 2025278
Apr 2025282
Mar 2025304
Feb 2025304
Jan 2025277
Dec 2024312
Nov 2024290
Oct 2024288
Sept 2024361
Aug 2024396
Jul 2024430
Jun 2024403
May 2024356
Apr 2024368
Mar 2024324
Feb 2024322
Jan 2024291
Dec 2023296
Nov 2023301
Oct 2023298
Sept 2023339
Aug 2023363
Jul 2023357
Jun 2023311
May 2023278
Apr 2023278
Mar 2023278
Feb 2023238
Jan 2023237
Dec 2022257
Nov 2022227
Oct 2022251
Sept 2022258
Aug 2022271
Jul 2022276
Jun 2022275
May 2022272
Apr 2022266
Mar 2022266
Feb 2022292
Jan 2022273
Dec 2021233
Nov 2021224
Oct 2021260
Sept 2021317
Aug 2021337
Jul 2021297
Jun 2021275
May 2021275
Apr 2021252
Mar 2021265
Feb 2021257
Jan 2021237
Dec 2020201
Nov 2020230
Oct 2020233
Sept 2020253
Aug 2020253
Jul 2020252
Jun 2020244
May 2020219
Apr 2020215
Mar 2020200
Feb 2020227
Jan 2020195
Dec 2019198
Nov 2019198
Oct 2019186
Sept 2019188
Aug 2019180
Jul 2019144
Jun 2019195
May 2019195
Apr 2019191
Mar 2019178
Feb 2019172
Jan 2019171
Dec 2018171
Nov 2018171
Oct 2018178
Sept 2018217
Aug 2018205
Jul 2018205
Jun 2018218
May 2018218
Apr 2018212
Mar 2018198
Feb 2018198
Jan 2018198
Dec 2017198
Nov 2017185
Oct 2017198
Sept 2017237
Aug 2017298
Jul 2017300
Jun 2017280
May 2017278
Apr 2017278
Mar 2017237
Feb 2017235
Jan 2017235
Oct 2016258
Sept 2016263
Aug 2016263
Jul 2016230
Jun 2016222
May 2016198
Feb 2016188
Jan 2016192
Dec 2015175
Oct 2015173
Sept 2015198
Aug 2015177
Jul 2015185
Jun 2015186
May 2015190
Apr 2015182
Mar 2015180
Feb 2015178
Jan 2015181
Nov 2014179
Oct 2014200
Sept 2014205
Aug 2014213
Jul 2014223
Jun 2014223
May 2014222
Apr 2014219
Mar 2014217
Feb 2014224
Jan 2014230
Dec 2013234
Nov 2013201
Oct 2013223
Sept 2013255
Aug 2013272
Jul 2013272
Jun 2013270
May 2013281
Apr 2013278
Mar 2013264
Jan 2013243
Dec 2012252
Nov 2012241
Oct 2012238
Sept 2012267
Aug 2012259
Jul 2012274
May 2012226
Apr 2012227
Dec 2011227
Nov 2011234
Oct 2011195
Sept 2011216
Jul 2011223
Jun 2011206
May 2011212
Apr 2011205
Mar 2011195
Feb 2011195
Jan 2011195
Dec 2010174
Nov 2010169
Oct 2010170
Sept 2010175
Aug 2010219
Jul 2010219
Jun 2010219
May 2010209
Apr 2010209
Mar 2010203
Feb 2010206
Jan 2010207
Dec 2009198
Nov 2009169
Oct 2009176
Sept 2009214
Aug 2009228
Jul 2009226
Jun 2009200
May 2009200
Apr 2009214
Mar 2009215
Feb 2009206
Jan 2009215

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-603-51-retail-kg.