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Rice (imported) in Matameye

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 10% below the national median of 52 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

406–487

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

394–493

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 406 and 487 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 394 and 493 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Matameye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 406 and 487 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 394 and 493 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 429–470 448 401–495 584 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 416–474 447 377–512 579 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 406–487 445 379–548 594 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 400–489 443 386–554 577 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 394–493 446 355–578 590 –
Price history (177 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026450
Aug 2026450
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026425
Mar 2026425
Feb 2026400
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025433
Nov 2025450
Oct 2025450
Sept 2025500
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025613
May 2025633
Apr 2025675
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025700
Jan 2025711
Dec 2024692
Nov 2024700
Oct 2024700
Sept 2024700
Jun 2024700
May 2024700
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024700
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023700
Oct 2023650
Aug 2023600
May 2023500
Apr 2023500
Mar 2023500
Feb 2023500
Jan 2023500
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022516
Oct 2022500
Jul 2022500
May 2022500
Apr 2022500
Mar 2022500
Feb 2022500
Jan 2022500
Dec 2021500
Nov 2021500
Oct 2021500
Sept 2021500
Aug 2021500
Jul 2021500
May 2021500
Apr 2021500
Mar 2021500
Feb 2021500
Jan 2021500
Dec 2020450
Nov 2020500
Oct 2020500
Sept 2020500
Aug 2020500
Jul 2020500
Jun 2020500
May 2020500
Apr 2020500
Mar 2020500
Feb 2020500
Jan 2020500
Dec 2019500
Nov 2019500
Oct 2019450
Jul 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018467
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018450
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017450
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017500
Mar 2017500
Feb 2017500
Jan 2017500
Oct 2016500
Sept 2016500
Aug 2016500
Jun 2016500
May 2016500
Apr 2016500
Mar 2016500
Feb 2016500
Jan 2016500
Dec 2015500
Oct 2015500
Aug 2015500
Jul 2015500
Jun 2015500
May 2015500
Apr 2015500
Mar 2015488
Feb 2015500
Jan 2015500
Nov 2014500
Oct 2014500
Sept 2014500
Aug 2014500
Jul 2014500
Jun 2014500
May 2014500
Apr 2014500
Mar 2014500
Feb 2014500
Jan 2014512
Dec 2013500
Nov 2013500
Oct 2013500
Sept 2013500
Aug 2013500
Jun 2013500
May 2013500
Apr 2013500
Mar 2013500
Jan 2013500
Dec 2012500
Nov 2012500
Oct 2012500
May 2012450
Apr 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011458
Oct 2011462
Sept 2011475
Jun 2011495
May 2011475
Apr 2011475
Mar 2011475
Jan 2011475
Dec 2010450
Nov 2010475
Oct 2010450
Sept 2010450
Aug 2010450
Jun 2010450
May 2010450
Apr 2010450
Mar 2010465
Feb 2010464
Jan 2010469
Dec 2009455
Nov 2009450
Oct 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450
Feb 2009450
Jan 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-603-64-retail-kg.