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Sorghum in Matameye

Zinder, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 8% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 6% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

144–232

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

135–239

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 135 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Matameye: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 144 and 232 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 135 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 176–239 202 163–266 307 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 154–232 180 141–274 273 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 144–232 170 130–314 255 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 133–234 165 113–358 235 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 135–239 172 120–377 242 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026180
Aug 2026218
Jul 2026236
Jun 2026230
May 2026186
Apr 2026178
Mar 2026172
Feb 2026166
Jan 2026153
Dec 2025159
Nov 2025179
Oct 2025201
Sept 2025244
Aug 2025244
Jul 2025310
Jun 2025330
May 2025321
Apr 2025308
Mar 2025296
Feb 2025298
Jan 2025216
Dec 2024266
Nov 2024259
Oct 2024325
Sept 2024368
Aug 2024399
Jul 2024438
Jun 2024392
May 2024342
Apr 2024340
Mar 2024287
Feb 2024263
Jan 2024256
Dec 2023238
Nov 2023271
Oct 2023278
Sept 2023293
Aug 2023331
Jul 2023282
Jun 2023262
May 2023258
Apr 2023238
Mar 2023218
Feb 2023220
Jan 2023206
Dec 2022218
Nov 2022315
Oct 2022242
Sept 2022257
Aug 2022270
Jul 2022297
Jun 2022280
May 2022251
Apr 2022257
Mar 2022257
Feb 2022258
Jan 2022217
Dec 2021191
Nov 2021231
Oct 2021257
Sept 2021296
Aug 2021299
Jul 2021255
Jun 2021245
May 2021245
Apr 2021246
Mar 2021254
Feb 2021225
Jan 2021195
Nov 2020189
Oct 2020236
Sept 2020250
Aug 2020246
Jul 2020236
Jun 2020204
May 2020193
Apr 2020200
Mar 2020188
Feb 2020175
Jan 2020176
Dec 2019173
Nov 2019165
Oct 2019158
Sept 2019165
Aug 2019154
Jul 2019161
Jun 2019175
May 2019172
Apr 2019178
Mar 2019168
Feb 2019168
Jan 2019167
Dec 2018147
Nov 2018149
Oct 2018168
Sept 2018210
Aug 2018210
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018190
May 2018190
Apr 2018189
Mar 2018179
Feb 2018178
Jan 2018174
Dec 2017164
Nov 2017155
Oct 2017177
Sept 2017196
Aug 2017267
Jul 2017238
Jun 2017223
May 2017206
Apr 2017208
Mar 2017181
Feb 2017178
Jan 2017174
Oct 2016174
Sept 2016204
Aug 2016213
Jul 2016175
Jun 2016173
May 2016162
Apr 2016160
Mar 2016170
Feb 2016145
Jan 2016144
Dec 2015144
Oct 2015151
Sept 2015155
Aug 2015161
Jul 2015158
Jun 2015164
May 2015172
Apr 2015159
Mar 2015146
Feb 2015148
Jan 2015159
Nov 2014141
Oct 2014142
Sept 2014190
Aug 2014209
Jul 2014214
Jun 2014221
May 2014213
Apr 2014210
Mar 2014210
Feb 2014214
Jan 2014205
Dec 2013211
Nov 2013198
Oct 2013231
Sept 2013274
Aug 2013265
Jul 2013268
Jun 2013269
May 2013268
Apr 2013257
Mar 2013244
Jan 2013212
Dec 2012211
Nov 2012212
Oct 2012227
Sept 2012233
Aug 2012258
Jul 2012252
May 2012232
Apr 2012231
Dec 2011188
Nov 2011183
Oct 2011151
Sept 2011166
Jul 2011202
Jun 2011182
May 2011198
Apr 2011183
Mar 2011175
Feb 2011178
Jan 2011178
Dec 2010164
Nov 2010150
Oct 2010150
Sept 2010159
Aug 2010213
Jul 2010220
Jun 2010215
May 2010209
Apr 2010190
Mar 2010192
Feb 2010192
Jan 2010181
Dec 2009184
Nov 2009154
Oct 2009153
Sept 2009200
Aug 2009196
Jul 2009179
Jun 2009154
May 2009159
Apr 2009162
Mar 2009160
Feb 2009161
Jan 2009161

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-603-65-retail-kg.