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Maize in Mayahi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 39% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 12% below the national median of 51 markets (usually about the same). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

126–195

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

119–206

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 126 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 119 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Mayahi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 126 and 195 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 119 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 150–192 174 136–201 287 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 133–190 159 111–195 261 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 126–195 154 106–221 258 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 123–199 153 105–248 254 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 119–206 157 99.8–289 260 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026192
Aug 2026175
Jul 2026202
Jun 2026175
May 2026165
Apr 2026165
Mar 2026175
Feb 2026175
Jan 2026149
Dec 2025185
Nov 2025204
Oct 2025180
Sept 2025204
Aug 2025230
Jul 2025267
Jun 2025267
May 2025282
Apr 2025304
Mar 2025317
Feb 2025321
Jan 2025324
Dec 2024304
Nov 2024260
Oct 2024305
Sept 2024375
Aug 2024457
Jul 2024459
Jun 2024393
May 2024393
Apr 2024356
Mar 2024330
Feb 2024325
Jan 2024319
Dec 2023283
Nov 2023295
Oct 2023302
Sept 2023337
Aug 2023360
Jul 2023335
Jun 2023327
May 2023280
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023280
Feb 2023281
Jan 2023263
Dec 2022263
Nov 2022299
Oct 2022227
Sept 2022212
Aug 2022279
Jul 2022284
Jun 2022285
May 2022305
Apr 2022305
Mar 2022304
Feb 2022300
Jan 2022300
Dec 2021270
Nov 2021253
Oct 2021250
Sept 2021308
Aug 2021347
Jul 2021329
Jun 2021274
May 2021274
Apr 2021265
Mar 2021240
Feb 2021264
Jan 2021252
Dec 2020232
Nov 2020253
Oct 2020250
Sept 2020266
Aug 2020247
Jul 2020247
Jun 2020238
May 2020224
Apr 2020224
Mar 2020216
Feb 2020180
Jan 2020202
Dec 2019186
Nov 2019183
Oct 2019186
Sept 2019202
Aug 2019184
Jul 2019185
Jun 2019201
May 2019204
Apr 2019208
Mar 2019208
Feb 2019201
Jan 2019185
Dec 2018181
Nov 2018195
Oct 2018202
Sept 2018234
Aug 2018227
Jul 2018227
May 2018229
Apr 2018209
Mar 2018202
Feb 2018207
Jan 2018204
Dec 2017204
Nov 2017204
Oct 2017247
Sept 2017245
Aug 2017246
Jul 2017240
Jun 2017263
May 2017267
Apr 2017267
Mar 2017243
Feb 2017245
Jan 2017204
Nov 2016200
Oct 2016220
Sept 2016243
Aug 2016259
Jul 2016240
Jun 2016217
May 2016213
Apr 2016212
Mar 2016204
Feb 2016204
Jan 2016205
Dec 2015207
Oct 2015227
Sept 2015226
Aug 2015205
Jul 2015211
Jun 2015216
May 2015204
Apr 2015190
Mar 2015183
Feb 2015204
Jan 2015206
Nov 2014204
Oct 2014213
Sept 2014226
Aug 2014224
Jul 2014240
Jun 2014252
May 2014246
Apr 2014241
Mar 2014251
Feb 2014245
Jan 2014247
Dec 2013238
Nov 2013230
Oct 2013245
Sept 2013244
Aug 2013260
Jul 2013284
Jun 2013296
May 2013283
Apr 2013283
Mar 2013282
Jan 2013253
Dec 2012247
Nov 2012242
Oct 2012226
Sept 2012257
Aug 2012268
Jul 2012282
May 2012246
Apr 2012246
Dec 2011234
Nov 2011243
Oct 2011229
Sept 2011240
Jul 2011250
May 2011255
Apr 2011231
Mar 2011210
Feb 2011207
Jan 2011211
Dec 2010211
Nov 2010198
Oct 2010193
Sept 2010204
Aug 2010244
Jul 2010258
Jun 2010240
May 2010234
Apr 2010229
Mar 2010226
Feb 2010226
Jan 2010229
Dec 2009227
Nov 2009226
Oct 2009206
Sept 2009222
Aug 2009271
Jul 2009262
Jun 2009232
May 2009248
Apr 2009247
Mar 2009246
Feb 2009273
Jan 2009274

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-604-51-retail-kg.