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Sorghum in Mayahi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 36% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 27% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 10% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

112–190

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

108–200

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 112 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 108 and 200 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Mayahi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 36% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 20% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 112 and 190 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 108 and 200 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 136–194 160 121–204 247 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 117–186 142 104–197 218 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 112–190 139 96.9–226 219 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 105–191 137 81.9–258 213 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 108–200 143 95–259 217 –
Price history (160 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026213
Aug 2026174
Jul 2026210
Jun 2026155
May 2026145
Apr 2026145
Mar 2026155
Feb 2026140
Jan 2026138
Dec 2025159
Nov 2025166
Oct 2025170
Aug 2025212
Jul 2025249
Jun 2025249
May 2025273
Apr 2025306
Mar 2025304
Feb 2025282
Jan 2025298
Dec 2024284
Nov 2024297
Oct 2024289
Sept 2024369
Aug 2024466
Jun 2024428
May 2024373
Apr 2024329
Mar 2024299
Feb 2024275
Jan 2024257
Dec 2023237
Nov 2023222
Aug 2023310
Jul 2023245
Jun 2023265
May 2023213
Apr 2023225
Mar 2023213
Feb 2023213
Jan 2023204
Dec 2022204
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022234
Sept 2022220
Jul 2022296
Jun 2022284
May 2022271
Apr 2022286
Mar 2022294
Feb 2022289
Jan 2022279
Dec 2021258
Nov 2021243
Oct 2021248
Aug 2021321
Jul 2021292
Jun 2021276
May 2021276
Apr 2021265
Feb 2021254
Jan 2021239
Jul 2020270
Jun 2020242
May 2020229
Apr 2020229
Mar 2020217
Feb 2020138
Jan 2020213
Dec 2019194
Nov 2019188
Oct 2019192
Sept 2019210
Jul 2019188
Jun 2019201
May 2019211
Apr 2019213
Mar 2019213
Feb 2019207
Jan 2019192
Dec 2018190
Nov 2018202
Oct 2018208
Sept 2018236
Aug 2018245
Jul 2018245
May 2018237
Apr 2018225
Mar 2018219
Feb 2018217
Jan 2018210
Dec 2017208
Jul 2017297
Jun 2017284
May 2017271
Apr 2017281
Mar 2017239
Feb 2017232
Jan 2017190
Nov 2016210
Oct 2016210
Sept 2016229
Jul 2016245
Jun 2016163
May 2016163
Apr 2016168
Mar 2016167
Feb 2016167
Jan 2016167
Dec 2015172
Oct 2015191
Sept 2015188
Jul 2015182
Jun 2015187
May 2015188
Apr 2015174
Mar 2015161
Feb 2015188
Jan 2015188
Nov 2014190
Sept 2014205
Aug 2014207
Jul 2014228
Jun 2014234
May 2014231
Apr 2014227
Mar 2014222
Oct 2013258
Jul 2013267
Jun 2013305
May 2013276
Apr 2013276
Mar 2013273
Jan 2013241
Dec 2012222
Sept 2012242
Aug 2012276
Jul 2012295
May 2012244
Apr 2012238
Dec 2011197
Nov 2011158
Oct 2011115
Sept 2011108
Jul 2011121
Jun 2011140
Jan 2011187
Nov 2010172
Oct 2010176
Sept 2010215
Aug 2010219
Jul 2010243
Jun 2010233
May 2010221
Apr 2010201
Mar 2010226
Sept 2009191
Jul 2009209
Jun 2009177
May 2009178

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-604-65-retail-kg.