Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Millet in Mayahi

Maradi, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 27% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 15% below the national median of 53 markets (usually 2% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

153–245

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

146–255

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 153 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 146 and 255 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Mayahi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 27% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 153 and 245 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 146 and 255 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 175–240 198 154–246 269 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 143–231 173 126–235 221 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 153–245 183 136–254 249 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 153–250 185 137–272 251 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 146–255 188 119–295 260 –
Price history (202 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026239
Aug 2026231
Jul 2026251
Jun 2026267
May 2026237
Apr 2026231
Mar 2026237
Feb 2026202
Jan 2026168
Dec 2025175
Nov 2025199
Oct 2025182
Sept 2025230
Aug 2025273
Jul 2025323
Jun 2025332
May 2025314
Apr 2025312
Mar 2025308
Feb 2025317
Jan 2025315
Dec 2024288
Nov 2024314
Oct 2024281
Sept 2024306
Aug 2024448
Jul 2024473
Jun 2024383
May 2024373
Apr 2024321
Mar 2024310
Feb 2024307
Jan 2024269
Dec 2023248
Nov 2023234
Oct 2023216
Sept 2023242
Aug 2023284
Jul 2023277
Jun 2023282
May 2023244
Apr 2023244
Mar 2023242
Feb 2023239
Jan 2023233
Dec 2022231
Nov 2022286
Oct 2022221
Sept 2022266
Aug 2022290
Jul 2022310
Jun 2022296
May 2022290
Apr 2022278
Mar 2022275
Feb 2022262
Jan 2022265
Dec 2021238
Nov 2021223
Oct 2021200
Sept 2021282
Aug 2021313
Jul 2021295
Jun 2021291
May 2021286
Apr 2021281
Mar 2021245
Feb 2021268
Jan 2021244
Dec 2020309
Nov 2020196
Oct 2020209
Sept 2020232
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020309
Jun 2020259
May 2020246
Apr 2020232
Mar 2020230
Feb 2020220
Jan 2020206
Dec 2019156
Nov 2019169
Oct 2019148
Sept 2019171
Aug 2019179
Jul 2019175
Jun 2019187
May 2019196
Apr 2019215
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019183
Jan 2019185
Dec 2018179
Nov 2018177
Oct 2018157
Sept 2018212
Aug 2018251
Jul 2018264
May 2018254
Apr 2018239
Mar 2018200
Feb 2018200
Jan 2018183
Dec 2017186
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017144
Sept 2017184
Aug 2017282
Jul 2017327
Jun 2017302
May 2017306
Apr 2017287
Mar 2017258
Feb 2017245
Jan 2017196
Nov 2016181
Oct 2016173
Sept 2016208
Aug 2016235
Jul 2016227
Jun 2016171
May 2016184
Mar 2016133
Feb 2016143
Jan 2016138
Dec 2015130
Oct 2015132
Sept 2015144
Aug 2015139
Jul 2015147
Jun 2015161
May 2015171
Apr 2015147
Mar 2015139
Feb 2015132
Jan 2015124
Nov 2014145
Oct 2014178
Sept 2014180
Aug 2014213
Jul 2014218
Jun 2014223
May 2014222
Apr 2014217
Mar 2014216
Feb 2014205
Jan 2014215
Dec 2013208
Nov 2013215
Oct 2013204
Sept 2013219
Aug 2013294
Jul 2013310
Jun 2013299
May 2013264
Apr 2013288
Mar 2013252
Jan 2013225
Dec 2012206
Nov 2012208
Oct 2012174
Sept 2012241
Aug 2012338
Jul 2012308
May 2012272
Apr 2012259
Dec 2011195
Nov 2011176
Oct 2011136
Sept 2011134
Jul 2011143
Jun 2011139
May 2011163
Apr 2011149
Mar 2011138
Feb 2011142
Jan 2011130
Dec 2010132
Nov 2010114
Oct 2010105
Sept 2010138
Aug 2010230
Jul 2010232
Jun 2010228
May 2010225
Apr 2010204
Mar 2010186
Feb 2010206
Jan 2010185
Dec 2009164
Nov 2009145
Oct 2009146
Sept 2009171
Aug 2009216
Jul 2009209
Jun 2009167
May 2009167
Apr 2009170
Mar 2009164
Feb 2009174
Jan 2009167

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-604-73-retail-kg.