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Maize in Mokko

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 2% below the national median of 51 markets (usually 3% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

130–225

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

120–238

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 120 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Mokko: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 130 and 225 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 120 and 238 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 411); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 166–230 203 144–296 316 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 137–220 176 113–286 263 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 130–225 169 114–358 253 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 126–229 170 103–370 258 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 120–238 172 97.2–411 262 –
Price history (199 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026203
Aug 2026195
Jul 2026271
Jun 2026195
May 2026188
Apr 2026187
Mar 2026178
Feb 2026190
Jan 2026189
Dec 2025204
Nov 2025204
Oct 2025207
Sept 2025218
Aug 2025265
Jul 2025288
Jun 2025292
May 2025285
Apr 2025288
Mar 2025276
Feb 2025292
Jan 2025279
Dec 2024267
Nov 2024251
Oct 2024301
Sept 2024347
Aug 2024400
Jul 2024421
Jun 2024392
May 2024372
Apr 2024338
Mar 2024329
Feb 2024292
Jan 2024281
Dec 2023271
Nov 2023272
Oct 2023307
Sept 2023410
Aug 2023350
Jul 2023302
Jun 2023225
May 2023224
Apr 2023204
Mar 2023224
Feb 2023224
Jan 2023224
Dec 2022233
Nov 2022269
Oct 2022235
Sept 2022289
Aug 2022384
Jul 2022287
Jun 2022406
May 2022307
Apr 2022307
Mar 2022307
Feb 2022247
Jan 2022240
Dec 2021226
Nov 2021204
Oct 2021238
Sept 2021271
Aug 2021312
Jul 2021295
Jun 2021246
May 2021246
Apr 2021250
Mar 2021311
Feb 2021250
Jan 2021221
Dec 2020183
Nov 2020204
Oct 2020210
Sept 2020214
Aug 2020245
Jul 2020230
Jun 2020190
May 2020163
Mar 2020195
Feb 2020181
Jan 2020174
Dec 2019184
Nov 2019172
Oct 2019163
Sept 2019186
Aug 2019180
Jul 2019184
Jun 2019200
May 2019204
Apr 2019206
Mar 2019204
Feb 2019163
Jan 2019184
Dec 2018184
Nov 2018170
Oct 2018170
Sept 2018245
Aug 2018185
Jul 2018193
Jun 2018224
May 2018200
Apr 2018208
Mar 2018186
Feb 2018184
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017183
Oct 2017183
Sept 2017204
Aug 2017225
Jul 2017225
Jun 2017224
May 2017229
Apr 2017227
Mar 2017206
Feb 2017222
Jan 2017178
Nov 2016159
Oct 2016165
Sept 2016242
Aug 2016241
Jul 2016242
Jun 2016244
May 2016237
Apr 2016213
Mar 2016205
Feb 2016205
Jan 2016181
Dec 2015181
Oct 2015189
Sept 2015208
Aug 2015219
Jul 2015227
Jun 2015218
May 2015203
Apr 2015155
Mar 2015155
Feb 2015172
Jan 2015162
Nov 2014161
Oct 2014196
Sept 2014187
Aug 2014186
Jul 2014192
Jun 2014214
May 2014222
Apr 2014205
Mar 2014193
Feb 2014195
Jan 2014182
Dec 2013183
Nov 2013209
Oct 2013212
Sept 2013248
Aug 2013246
Jul 2013244
Jun 2013244
May 2013267
Apr 2013267
Mar 2013237
Jan 2013219
Dec 2012222
Nov 2012219
Oct 2012219
Sept 2012267
Aug 2012279
Jul 2012255
May 2012208
Apr 2012208
Dec 2011202
Nov 2011202
Oct 2011222
Sept 2011211
Jul 2011217
Jun 2011226
May 2011256
Apr 2011191
Mar 2011178
Feb 2011188
Jan 2011186
Dec 2010185
Nov 2010188
Oct 2010192
Sept 2010197
Aug 2010198
Jul 2010201
Jun 2010197
May 2010196
Apr 2010198
Feb 2010196
Jan 2010191
Dec 2009190
Nov 2009164
Oct 2009164
Sept 2009273
Aug 2009278
Jul 2009270
Jun 2009234
May 2009262
Apr 2009202
Mar 2009206

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-605-51-retail-kg.