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Rice (imported) in Mokko

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was about the same as the national median of 52 markets (usually 6% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

452–539

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

426–554

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 452 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 426 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Mokko: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 452 and 539 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 426 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 480–522 501 447–548 618 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 463–529 500 427–566 620 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 452–539 498 419–619 620 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 439–547 498 387–668 607 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 426–554 497 380–646 616 –
Price history (194 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025520
Sept 2025575
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025600
May 2025650
Apr 2025675
Mar 2025700
Feb 2025713
Jan 2025700
Dec 2024700
Nov 2024725
Oct 2024713
Sept 2024738
Aug 2024800
Jul 2024800
Jun 2024760
May 2024740
Apr 2024700
Mar 2024700
Feb 2024700
Jan 2024700
Dec 2023700
Nov 2023713
Oct 2023700
Sept 2023650
Aug 2023600
Jul 2023488
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022450
Apr 2022450
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021450
Nov 2021450
Oct 2021450
Sept 2021450
Aug 2021450
Jul 2021450
Jun 2021450
May 2021450
Apr 2021450
Mar 2021690
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021450
Dec 2020426
Nov 2020450
Oct 2020450
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020450
Jun 2020450
May 2020450
Mar 2020450
Feb 2020450
Jan 2020450
Dec 2019450
Nov 2019450
Oct 2019450
Sept 2019450
Aug 2019450
Jul 2019450
Jun 2019450
May 2019450
Apr 2019450
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019450
Jan 2019450
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018450
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018410
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018450
Jun 2018450
May 2018450
Apr 2018450
Mar 2018450
Feb 2018450
Jan 2018450
Dec 2017450
Nov 2017410
Oct 2017450
Sept 2017450
Aug 2017450
Jul 2017450
Jun 2017450
May 2017450
Apr 2017450
Mar 2017450
Feb 2017450
Jan 2017450
Nov 2016450
Oct 2016450
Sept 2016450
Aug 2016450
Jul 2016450
Jun 2016450
May 2016450
Feb 2016450
Jan 2016450
Dec 2015450
Oct 2015450
Sept 2015450
Aug 2015450
Jul 2015450
Jun 2015450
May 2015450
Apr 2015450
Mar 2015450
Feb 2015450
Jan 2015450
Nov 2014450
Oct 2014450
Sept 2014450
Aug 2014450
Jul 2014450
Jun 2014450
May 2014450
Apr 2014450
Mar 2014450
Feb 2014450
Jan 2014450
Dec 2013450
Nov 2013433
Oct 2013400
Sept 2013400
Aug 2013400
Jul 2013400
Jun 2013400
May 2013400
Apr 2013400
Mar 2013400
Jan 2013400
Dec 2012400
Nov 2012400
Oct 2012400
Sept 2012400
Aug 2012400
Jul 2012400
May 2012417
Apr 2012450
Dec 2011450
Nov 2011450
Oct 2011450
Sept 2011450
Jul 2011450
Jun 2011450
May 2011450
Apr 2011450
Mar 2011450
Jan 2011450
Dec 2010425
Nov 2010400
Oct 2010400
Sept 2010400
Aug 2010400
Jul 2010400
Jun 2010400
May 2010400
Apr 2010400
Feb 2010438
Jan 2010400
Nov 2009450
Aug 2009450
Jul 2009450
Jun 2009450
May 2009450
Apr 2009450
Mar 2009450

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-605-64-retail-kg.