Staple Signals Français

Home › Niger

Millet in Mokko

Dosso, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 3% above the national median of 53 markets (usually 7% below). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

154–273

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

159–285

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 38% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 154 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Mokko: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 38% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 53 markets in Niger, the median price rose 5% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 154 and 273 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 159 and 285 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (53 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 218–286 253 188–297 314 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 162–266 205 130–284 245 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 154–273 202 124–302 244 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 160–280 207 121–370 259 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 159–285 212 125–381 255 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026255
Aug 2026281
Jul 2026277
Jun 2026246
May 2026203
Apr 2026203
Mar 2026211
Feb 2026205
Jan 2026200
Dec 2025200
Nov 2025200
Oct 2025204
Sept 2025218
Aug 2025256
Jul 2025286
Jun 2025286
May 2025285
Apr 2025285
Mar 2025270
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025272
Dec 2024268
Nov 2024260
Oct 2024270
Sept 2024339
Aug 2024424
Jul 2024441
Jun 2024390
May 2024359
Apr 2024331
Mar 2024310
Feb 2024285
Jan 2024260
Dec 2023245
Nov 2023240
Oct 2023292
Sept 2023299
Aug 2023301
Jul 2023286
Jun 2023241
May 2023240
Apr 2023240
Mar 2023220
Feb 2023240
Jan 2023220
Dec 2022228
Nov 2022250
Oct 2022233
Sept 2022449
Aug 2022371
Jul 2022310
Jun 2022302
May 2022301
Apr 2022301
Mar 2022301
Feb 2022242
Jan 2022235
Dec 2021222
Nov 2021200
Oct 2021206
Sept 2021279
Aug 2021305
Jul 2021289
Jun 2021263
May 2021253
Apr 2021245
Mar 2021305
Feb 2021245
Jan 2021212
Dec 2020241
Nov 2020200
Oct 2020186
Sept 2020240
Aug 2020280
Jul 2020258
Jun 2020240
May 2020187
Mar 2020212
Feb 2020180
Jan 2020180
Dec 2019180
Nov 2019140
Oct 2019163
Sept 2019170
Aug 2019180
Jul 2019189
Jun 2019197
May 2019200
Apr 2019202
Mar 2019200
Feb 2019160
Jan 2019180
Dec 2018180
Nov 2018184
Oct 2018184
Sept 2018220
Aug 2018242
Jul 2018242
Jun 2018240
May 2018223
Apr 2018224
Mar 2018201
Feb 2018201
Jan 2018202
Dec 2017201
Nov 2017200
Oct 2017182
Sept 2017207
Aug 2017243
Jul 2017243
Jun 2017245
May 2017245
Apr 2017232
Mar 2017202
Feb 2017204
Jan 2017163
Nov 2016162
Oct 2016141
Sept 2016255
Aug 2016226
Jul 2016213
Jun 2016213
May 2016206
Apr 2016184
Mar 2016191
Feb 2016170
Jan 2016160
Dec 2015160
Oct 2015162
Sept 2015202
Aug 2015210
Jul 2015200
Jun 2015200
May 2015190
Apr 2015170
Mar 2015160
Feb 2015161
Jan 2015163
Nov 2014153
Oct 2014142
Sept 2014184
Aug 2014207
Jul 2014210
Jun 2014227
May 2014234
Apr 2014226
Mar 2014214
Feb 2014214
Jan 2014210
Dec 2013183
Nov 2013199
Oct 2013214
Sept 2013280
Aug 2013280
Jul 2013279
Jun 2013270
May 2013255
Apr 2013255
Mar 2013239
Jan 2013215
Dec 2012213
Nov 2012190
Oct 2012210
Sept 2012305
Aug 2012340
Jul 2012278
May 2012243
Apr 2012223
Dec 2011207
Nov 2011208
Oct 2011217
Sept 2011204
Jul 2011204
Jun 2011204
May 2011194
Apr 2011183
Mar 2011173
Feb 2011179
Jan 2011179
Dec 2010160
Nov 2010163
Oct 2010134
Sept 2010178
Aug 2010209
Jul 2010209
Jun 2010227
May 2010202
Apr 2010204
Feb 2010204
Jan 2010198
Dec 2009195
Nov 2009177
Oct 2009167
Sept 2009278
Aug 2009281
Jul 2009239
Jun 2009219
May 2009231
Apr 2009234
Mar 2009231

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-605-73-retail-kg.