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Maize in Nguigmi

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Far above the national price. In August 2026 the price here was 53% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 19% above). That is far above its usual distance: prices that separate from the rest of the country can point to a cut-off area, but also to a data error. How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

180–312

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

180–329

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 312 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 329 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize, Nguigmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 52 markets in Niger, the median price rose 4% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 180 and 312 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 180 and 329 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 244–324 287 212–342 374 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 215–315 256 176–334 333 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 180–312 236 152–329 288 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 180–315 233 146–355 289 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 180–329 241 146–384 311 –
Price history (357 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026306
Aug 2026305
Jul 2026332
Jun 2026296
May 2026279
Apr 2026267
Mar 2026261
Feb 2026251
Jan 2026248
Dec 2025248
Nov 2025232
Oct 2025237
Sept 2025263
Aug 2025298
Jul 2025388
Jun 2025362
May 2025340
Apr 2025364
Mar 2025345
Feb 2025359
Jan 2025331
Dec 2024316
Nov 2024315
Oct 2024338
Sept 2024452
Aug 2024509
Jul 2024475
Jun 2024419
May 2024439
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024360
Feb 2024345
Jan 2024326
Dec 2023342
Nov 2023343
Oct 2023375
Sept 2023461
Aug 2023442
Jul 2023346
Jun 2023313
May 2023391
Apr 2023356
Mar 2023322
Feb 2023215
Jan 2023330
Dec 2022342
Nov 2022202
Oct 2022308
Sept 2022310
Aug 2022331
Jul 2022337
Jun 2022340
May 2022331
Apr 2022286
Mar 2022282
Feb 2022251
Jan 2022241
Dec 2021248
Nov 2021242
Oct 2021327
Sept 2021363
Aug 2021384
Jul 2021346
Jun 2021366
May 2021366
Apr 2021340
Mar 2021175Data error
Feb 2021308
Jan 2021304
Dec 2020156
Nov 2020216
Oct 2020348
Sept 2020363
Aug 2020351
Jul 2020289
Jun 2020262
May 2020250
Apr 2020255
Mar 2020270
Feb 2020249
Jan 2020257
Dec 2019242
Nov 2019235
Oct 2019234
Sept 2019235
Aug 2019236
Jul 2019233
Jun 2019231
May 2019226
Apr 2019245
Mar 2019223
Feb 2019221
Jan 2019217
Dec 2018217
Oct 2018275
Sept 2018289
Aug 2018294
Jul 2018289
Jun 2018281
May 2018267
Apr 2018270
Mar 2018279
Feb 2018289
Jan 2018258
Dec 2017260
Nov 2017302
Oct 2017300
Sept 2017340
Aug 2017333
Jul 2017376
Jun 2017364
May 2017300
Apr 2017346
Mar 2017296
Feb 2017272
Jan 2017247
Nov 2016238
Oct 2016227
Sept 2016281
Aug 2016286
Jul 2016301
Jun 2016253
May 2016252
Feb 2016233
Jan 2016217
Dec 2015247
Oct 2015247
Sept 2015247
Aug 2015247
Jul 2015247
Jun 2015247
May 2015247
Mar 2015248
Feb 2015249
Nov 2014279
Oct 2014277
Sept 2014261
Aug 2014261
Jul 2014259
Jun 2014253
May 2014252
Apr 2014247
Mar 2014247
Feb 2014249
Jan 2014250
Dec 2013249
Nov 2013257
Oct 2013242
Sept 2013256
Aug 2013225
Jul 2013244
Jun 2013270
May 2013251
Apr 2013240
Mar 2013232
Feb 2013210
Jan 2013216
Dec 2012243
Nov 2012257
Oct 2012292
Sept 2012316
Aug 2012312
Jul 2012293
May 2012323
Apr 2012316
Mar 2012240
Feb 2012232
Jan 2012241
Dec 2011232
Nov 2011208
Oct 2011197
Sept 2011192
Jul 2011192
Jun 2011198
May 2011219
Apr 2011201
Mar 2011201
Jan 2011198
Dec 2010203
Nov 2010232
Oct 2010232
Sept 2010254
Aug 2010272
Jul 2010257
Jun 2010201
May 2010238
Apr 2010253
Mar 2010199
Feb 2010226
Jan 2010224
Dec 2009212
Nov 2009202
Oct 2009210
Sept 2009250
Aug 2009249
Jul 2009242
Jun 2009202
May 2009187
Apr 2009213
Mar 2009213
Feb 2009208
Jan 2009212
Dec 2008216
Nov 2008218
Oct 2008234
Sept 2008244
Aug 2008238
Jul 2008238
Apr 2008235
Feb 2008205
Jan 2008182
Dec 2007179
Nov 2007179
Sept 2007179
Aug 2007179
Jul 2007174
Feb 2007169
Jan 2007179
Dec 2006179
Nov 2006174
Oct 2006179
Sept 2006179
Aug 2006191
Jul 2006178
Jun 2006177
May 2006172
Apr 2006155
Mar 2006210
Feb 2006162
Jan 2006202
Dec 2005157
Nov 2005140
Oct 2005175
Sept 2005224
Jul 2005312
Jun 2005298
May 2005277
Apr 2005278
Mar 2005224
Feb 2005190
Jan 2005163
Dec 2004164
Nov 2004165
Sept 2004174
Aug 2004174
Jul 2004164
Jun 2004169
May 2004159
Apr 2004141
Mar 2004156
Feb 2004136
Jan 2004135
Dec 2003126
Nov 2003130
Oct 2003126
Sept 2003147
Aug 2003182
Jul 2003178
Jun 2003186
May 2003193
Apr 2003176
Mar 2003173
Feb 2003165
Jan 2003161
Dec 2002156
Nov 2002178
Oct 2002224
Sept 2002250
Aug 2002256
Jul 2002269
Jun 2002227
Apr 2002185
Mar 2002140
Feb 2002142
Nov 2001156
Oct 2001129
Sept 2001162
Aug 2001154
Jul 2001213
Jun 2001213
May 2001226
Apr 2001216
Feb 2001134
Jan 2001128
Sept 2000128
Aug 2000131
Jul 2000142
Jun 2000128
May 2000106
Apr 2000131
Mar 200092
Feb 200092
Jan 200096
Dec 199998
Nov 199996
Oct 1999102
Sept 199995
Aug 1999103
Jul 1999110
Jun 1999101
May 1999103
Apr 199998
Mar 199992
Feb 1999100
Jan 199990
Dec 199882
Nov 199890
Oct 199898
Sept 1998124
Aug 1998231
Jul 1998202
Jun 1998193
May 1998178
Apr 1998163
Mar 1998131
Feb 1998124
Jan 1998124
Dec 1997116
Nov 199789
Oct 1997120
May 1997131
Mar 1997116
Feb 1997108
Jan 1997117
Dec 199697
Nov 1996107
Oct 1996109
Aug 1996116
Jul 1996107
May 1996124
Apr 1996115
Mar 199691
Feb 199684
Jan 199692
Dec 199592
Nov 199591
Oct 199590
Sept 199593
Aug 199593
Jul 199580
Jun 199576
May 199574
Apr 199573
Mar 199577
Feb 199589
Jan 199595
Dec 199487
Nov 1994100
Sept 199488
Aug 199484
Jul 199489
Jun 199491
May 199494
Apr 199475
Mar 199479
Feb 199476
Jan 199456

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-606-51-retail-kg.