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Rice (imported) in Nguigmi

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 30% above the national median of 52 markets (usually 18% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

482–734

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

474–747

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 482 and 734 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 474 and 747 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Nguigmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 59 markets in Niger, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 482 and 734 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 474 and 747 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02505007501,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (52 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 561–678 639 509–733 709 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 515–690 632 438–786 705 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 482–734 622 403–821 721 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 466–738 616 407–909 675 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 474–747 616 414–928 687 –
Price history (200 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026695
Aug 2026650
Jul 2026699
Jun 2026667
May 2026599
Apr 2026571
Mar 2026579
Feb 2026557
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025667
Oct 2025663
Sept 2025682
Aug 2025700
Jul 2025718
Jun 2025620
May 2025637
Apr 2025750
Mar 2025775
Feb 2025900
Jan 2025900
Dec 2024900
Nov 2024763
Oct 2024827
Sept 2024820
Aug 2024813
Jul 2024844
Jun 2024701
May 2024773
Apr 2024800
Mar 2024701
Feb 2024586
Jan 2024557
Dec 2023683
Nov 2023800
Oct 2023775
Sept 2023748
Aug 2023575
Jul 2023576
Jun 2023468
May 2023544
Apr 2023544
Mar 2023528
Feb 2023528
Jan 2023581
Dec 2022601
Nov 2022543
Oct 2022550
Sept 2022533
Aug 2022519
Jul 2022577
Jun 2022577
May 2022581
Apr 2022562
Mar 2022565
Feb 2022573
Jan 2022562
Dec 2021579
Nov 2021564
Oct 2021576
Sept 2021558
Aug 2021587
Jul 2021610
Jun 2021663
May 2021663
Apr 2021714
Mar 2021400Data error
Feb 2021780
Jan 2021766
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020630
Oct 2020632
Sept 2020646
Aug 2020586
Jul 2020568
Jun 2020560
May 2020568
Apr 2020564
Mar 2020562
Feb 2020566
Jan 2020566
Dec 2019566
Nov 2019566
Oct 2019556
Sept 2019566
Aug 2019571
Jul 2019564
Jun 2019558
May 2019548
Apr 2019548
Mar 2019542
Feb 2019536
Jan 2019540
Dec 2018540
Oct 2018543
Sept 2018550
Aug 2018558
Jul 2018587
Jun 2018533
May 2018507
Apr 2018514
Mar 2018520
Feb 2018533
Jan 2018475
Dec 2017542
Nov 2017552
Oct 2017594
Sept 2017552
Aug 2017532
Jul 2017687
Jun 2017665
May 2017687
Apr 2017634
Mar 2017549
Feb 2017516
Jan 2017522
Nov 2016592
Oct 2016444
Sept 2016516
Aug 2016530
Jul 2016650
Jun 2016658
May 2016615
Apr 2016542
Feb 2016622
Jan 2016514
Dec 2015539
Oct 2015544
Sept 2015547
Aug 2015532
Jul 2015538
Jun 2015568
May 2015558
Apr 2015645
Mar 2015610
Feb 2015591
Jan 2015596
Nov 2014621
Oct 2014635
Sept 2014616
Aug 2014616
Jul 2014595
Jun 2014596
May 2014588
Apr 2014575
Mar 2014582
Feb 2014602
Jan 2014587
Dec 2013586
Nov 2013605
Oct 2013616
Sept 2013615
Aug 2013619
Jul 2013611
Jun 2013629
May 2013623
Apr 2013616
Mar 2013631
Jan 2013654
Dec 2012614
Nov 2012632
Oct 2012648
Sept 2012648
Aug 2012671
Jul 2012717
May 2012647
Apr 2012614
Dec 2011593
Nov 2011524
Oct 2011519
Sept 2011500
Jul 2011517
Jun 2011550
May 2011600
Apr 2011600
Mar 2011600
Jan 2011575
Dec 2010500
Oct 2010525
Sept 2010600
Aug 2010500
Jul 2010500
Jun 2010500
May 2010500
Apr 2010500
Mar 2010500
Feb 2010500
Jan 2010500
Dec 2009500
Nov 2009500
Oct 2009500
Sept 2009500
Aug 2009500
Jul 2009500
Jun 2009500
May 2009500
Apr 2009600
Mar 2009650
Feb 2009600
Jan 2009600

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-606-64-retail-kg.