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Sorghum in Nguigmi

Diffa, Niger · XOF per KG · retail

Food basket in this market

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

In August 2026 the price here was 32% above the national median of 51 markets (usually 19% above). How this is measured.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

176–313

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

188–330

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 330 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum, Nguigmi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 17% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 51 markets in Niger, the median price rose 6% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 176 and 313 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 188 and 330 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • National median (51 markets)
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 246–330 290 223–357 368 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 206–319 261 196–371 331 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 176–313 234 147–364 286 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 167–317 231 138–418 280 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 188–330 245 172–449 297 –
Price history (296 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026300
Aug 2026312
Jul 2026307
Jun 2026290
May 2026267
Apr 2026261
Mar 2026253
Feb 2026244
Jan 2026202
Dec 2025242
Nov 2025278
Oct 2025276
Sept 2025318
Aug 2025328
Jul 2025354
Jun 2025323
May 2025337
Apr 2025331
Mar 2025309
Feb 2025308
Jan 2025346
Dec 2024327
Nov 2024335
Oct 2024314
Sept 2024413
Aug 2024468
Jul 2024469
Jun 2024401
May 2024399
Apr 2024362
Mar 2024370
Feb 2024320
Jan 2024307
Dec 2023297
Nov 2023339
Oct 2023359
Sept 2023394
Aug 2023438
Jul 2023305
Jun 2023308
May 2023338
Apr 2023351
Mar 2023321
Feb 2023198
Jan 2023306
Dec 2022258
Nov 2022163
Oct 2022279
Sept 2022284
Aug 2022290
Jul 2022288
Jun 2022303
May 2022323
Apr 2022283
Mar 2022278
Feb 2022248
Jan 2022238
Dec 2021244
Nov 2021238
Oct 2021308
Sept 2021358
Aug 2021378
Jul 2021339
Jun 2021359
May 2021359
Apr 2021336
Mar 2021243
Feb 2021300
Jan 2021297
Dec 2020193
Nov 2020210
Oct 2020343
Sept 2020343
Aug 2020285
Jul 2020264
Jun 2020251
May 2020249
Apr 2020254
Mar 2020269
Feb 2020262
Jan 2020254
Dec 2019223
Nov 2019231
Oct 2019231
Sept 2019231
Jul 2019228
Jun 2019226
May 2019225
Mar 2019221
Feb 2019217
Jan 2019215
Dec 2018215
Nov 2018252
Oct 2018276
Sept 2018284
Aug 2018289
Jul 2018284
Jun 2018276
May 2018229
Apr 2018232
Mar 2018240
Feb 2018247
Jan 2018216
Dec 2017221
Nov 2017262
Oct 2017260
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017291
Jul 2017368
Jun 2017285
May 2017257
Apr 2017340
Mar 2017292
Feb 2017242
Jan 2017217
Nov 2016205
Oct 2016227
Sept 2016280
Aug 2016252
Jul 2016249
Jun 2016198
May 2016208
Feb 2016190
Jan 2016204
Dec 2015230
Oct 2015229
Sept 2015239
Aug 2015240
Jul 2015246
Jun 2015244
May 2015244
Apr 2015248
Mar 2015228
Feb 2015244
Jan 2015228
Nov 2014274
Oct 2014272
Sept 2014259
Aug 2014255
Jul 2014258
Jun 2014252
May 2014249
Apr 2014241
Mar 2014230
Feb 2014246
Jan 2014247
Dec 2013247
Nov 2013251
Oct 2013259
Sept 2013263
Aug 2013260
Jul 2013269
Jun 2013273
May 2013247
Apr 2013239
Mar 2013223
Feb 2013208
Jan 2013212
Dec 2012233
Nov 2012230
Oct 2012220
Sept 2012329
Aug 2012326
Jul 2012299
May 2012317
Apr 2012271
Mar 2012240
Feb 2012233
Jan 2012232
Dec 2011227
Nov 2011210
Oct 2011195
Sept 2011190
Jul 2011189
Jun 2011197
May 2011218
Apr 2011200
Mar 2011200
Jan 2011193
Dec 2010198
Nov 2010212
Oct 2010234
Sept 2010247
Aug 2010272
Jul 2010266
Jun 2010216
May 2010236
Apr 2010246
Mar 2010238
Feb 2010223
Jan 2010227
Dec 2009213
Nov 2009219
Oct 2009219
Sept 2009247
Aug 2009247
Jul 2009238
Jun 2009179
May 2009179
Apr 2009205
Mar 2009212
Feb 2009202
Jan 2009202
Dec 2008200
Nov 2008202
Oct 2008224
Aug 2008233
Jul 2008236
Jun 2008226
May 2008228
Apr 2008228
Mar 2008224
Feb 2008202
Jan 2008179
Dec 2007200
Nov 2007178
Oct 2007179
Sept 2007179
Aug 2007177
Jul 2007172
Jun 2007161
May 2007180
Apr 2007179
Mar 2007176
Feb 2007171
Jan 2007179
Dec 2006179
Nov 2006178
Oct 2006177
Sept 2006179
Aug 2006185
Jul 2006175
Jun 2006167
May 2006149
Apr 2006155
Mar 2006158
Feb 2006151
Jan 2006162
Dec 2005148
Nov 2005140
Oct 2005163
Sept 2005308
Aug 2005302
Jul 2005302
Jun 2005292
May 2005233
Apr 2005260
Mar 2005209
Feb 2005193
Jan 2005168
Dec 2004189
Nov 2004190
Sept 2004182
Aug 2004142
Jul 2004150
Jun 2004159
May 2004147
Apr 2004132
Mar 2004130
Feb 2004126
Jan 2004130
Dec 2003122
Nov 2003138
Oct 2003120
Sept 2003142
Aug 2003167
Jul 2003165
Jun 2003163
May 2003173
Apr 2003160
Mar 2003163
Feb 2003142
Jan 2003143
Dec 2002148
Nov 2002175
Oct 2002194
Sept 2002187
Aug 2002188
Jul 2002189
Jun 2002186
Apr 2002147
Mar 2002115
Feb 2002114
Jan 2002114
Dec 2001105
Nov 2001135
Oct 2001153
Sept 2001147
Aug 2001133
Jul 2001175
Jun 2001157
May 2001197
Apr 2001174
Mar 2001194
Feb 2001124
Jan 2001112

Track record in Niger

How past forecasts for Niger did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Niger
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 80% 96% 4% better than the base rate 8,042
Estimate (this month) 76% 94% 7% better than the base rate 8,024
Next month 73% 92% 10% better than the base rate 8,005
In 2 months 68% 89% 12% better than the base rate 7,988
In 3 months 63% 86% 15% better than the base rate 7,975

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: niger-606-65-retail-kg.